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When periods of exuberance come to a close, ideas that once seemed to make a lot of sense no longer do. So it is in the European car industry. Slowing growth of electric vehicle sales has caused a series of corporate U-turns. While sharp swerves are never fun, the change in direction is sensible.
当繁荣期结束时，那些曾经看起来很合理的想法就不再合理了。欧洲汽车业也是如此。电动汽车销售增长的放缓导致了一系列企业180度大转弯。虽然急转弯从来都不是一件有趣的事，但改变方向是明智的。
A decision by Volvo Cars on Thursday to cut loose its premium EV brand Polestar is the latest example of a strategic about-turn. Earlier this week, Renault axed plans to float its EV unit Ampere. A mooted initial public offering of Volkswagen’s battery unit, meanwhile, also looks some way off.
沃尔沃汽车周四决定砍掉其高端电动汽车品牌极星(Polestar)，就是战略转向的最新例证。本周早些时候，雷诺取消了电动汽车部门Ampere的上市计划。与此同时，大众汽车酝酿中的电池部门首次公开发行看起来也还有待时日。
The wheels have not come off the EV market entirely. Sales growth in Europe is expected to come in at about 5 per cent in 2024 — a sharp slowdown from 2023’s 14 per cent growth, but hardly a crash. The market had simply overestimated the pace of change.
电动汽车市场还未彻底失败。2024年，欧洲的销售增长率预计约为5%，与2023年14% 的增长率相比大幅放缓，但并不能算崩溃。市场只是高估了变化的速度。
EU carmakers, traditionally plagued with vast conglomerate discounts, aimed to attract sky high valuations for their EV arms. The hope was to achieve those enjoyed by Tesla, which trades at more than 58 times forward earnings, and Vietnam’s VinFast. Now that the market’s enthusiasm has waned — shares in VinFast are down 85 per cent over the past six months — “unlocking value” through corporate action looks less attractive.
欧盟的汽车制造商向来受到庞大集团折价的困扰，它们的目标是为其电动汽车部门吸引天价估值，希望能达到特斯拉和越南VinFast曾享受过的估值，前者远期市盈率超过58倍。现在，市场的热情已经消退，VinFast的股价在过去六个月里下跌了85%，通过企业行动“释放价值”看起来吸引力不大。
The strategic rationale for EV listings was always tenuous. Polestar, with sizeable investment needs and operationally reliant on Volvo and its Chinese parent Geely, was not an obvious candidate for a standalone equity story when it listed in 2022. Worse, Volvo retained 48 per cent. With the Swedish carmaker facing big EV-related capex needs of its own, a spin-off that hands Polestar to its ultimate shareholder Geely looks like a better plan. Volvo’s stock rose by about a quarter on Thursday.
电动汽车上市的战略理由一直都很薄弱。极星有着巨大的投资需求，在运营上又依赖沃尔沃及其中国母公司吉利，在2022年上市时，并不能算是个独立上市的显著样本。更糟糕的是，沃尔沃保留了48%的股份。由于这家瑞典汽车制造商自身也面临着与电动汽车相关的巨大资本支出需求，分拆极星交给其最终股东吉利似乎是一个更好的方案。沃尔沃的股票周四上涨了约四分之一。
At Renault, too, shareholders welcomed the decision to keep Ampere within the fold. Lex has argued that EVs will be a key pillar of the group’s value creation in future. But given Renault does not need capital to fund its transition, it is right to hold on to Ampere for the time being.
在雷诺，股东们也对将Ampere保留在集团内部的决定表示欢迎。Lex认为，电动汽车将成为该集团未来价值创造的关键支柱。但考虑到雷诺不需要资金来支持其转型，暂时保留Ampere是正确的。
The slowing pace of EV adoption is good news for traditional European automakers, which have been slow to transition. Stellantis, which has taken a particularly cautious approach, has outperformed Tesla in the past 12 months. If the EV revolution takes longer to materialise legacy automakers should have more time to align themselves with their EV-focused peers.
电动汽车普及速度放缓，对转型缓慢的传统欧洲汽车制造商来说是个好消息。Stellantis采取了特别谨慎的态度，在过去12个月中的表现超过了特斯拉。如果电动车革命需要更长的时间才能实现，那么传统汽车制造商应该有更多的时间与电动汽车同行保持一致。