For much of the past decade, the prevailing narrative surrounding Brazil’s trade relationship with China has centred on environmental risk. China’s vast demand for soyabeans and beef has frequently been portrayed as a principal driver of deforestation in the Amazon and the Cerrado, reinforcing a model of commodity expansion that threatens biodiversity and accelerates climate change. This concern is neither superficial nor unfounded. Yet it is incomplete. The deepening commercial ties between Brasília and Beijing have also contributed to meaningful environmental change within Brazil, particularly in the fields of renewable energy and livestock production. The central question now is whether these positive dynamics can be consolidated and extended so that trade becomes not merely compatible with environmental protection, but actively supportive of it.
The most visible and quantifiable environmental dividend of Brazil–China trade lies in the energy sector. Over the past 15 years, China’s large-scale industrial policy in photovoltaic manufacturing has driven a dramatic decline in the global cost of solar panels. This reduction in capital costs has transformed the economics of renewable energy deployment worldwide. Brazil, endowed with abundant solar irradiation but historically reliant on hydropower, has been a significant beneficiary. Solar power now accounts for more than 10 per cent of Brazil’s electricity generation, an extraordinary development for a country that only recently began investing seriously in distributed photovoltaic systems. When combined with hydropower, wind and bioenergy, renewable sources represent well over half of Brazil’s overall energy matrix and an even larger share of electricity generation.