{"text":[[{"start":10,"text":"China’s trade surplus in goods hit a historic $1.2tn last year, fuelling what has been dubbed the “China shock 2.0”, in which other countries are being swamped not with cheap clothes and toys but advanced electronics, green tech and cars."}],[{"start":24.75,"text":"Beijing will report April trade figures on Saturday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect a surplus of $82bn for the month, up from $51bn in March."}],[{"start":37.25,"text":"Despite strains in parts of China’s economy, it is less exposed than other countries to the surge in oil and gas prices from the Iran war because of its greater use of coal and renewables. This should make its exports more competitive, as costs rise less in China than elsewhere."}],[{"start":55.15,"text":"Analysts at Citi think this will hit the EU and south-east Asia. "}],[{"start":59.75,"text":"“If the Iran-induced energy crisis lasts longer, there is a risk that some of the relative industrial competitive advantages of China vs Asia (especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and parts of Europe may resurface given China’s more resilient energy infrastructure,” they wrote. "}],[{"start":78.1,"text":"But analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the fallout from Iran may not support exports for long."}],[{"start":85.25,"text":"“While trade growth was exceptionally strong in Q1, we expect it to moderate in the coming quarters due to continued trade disruptions in the Middle East and lower demand from low-income oil-importing trading partners,” they wrote in a recent note. "}],[{"start":98.9,"text":"In the longer term, however, China’s highly competitive supply chain for renewable energy and batteries is expected to drive more export growth as countries look to diversify away from fossil fuels and boost investments in AI. William Sandlund"}],[{"start":114.85000000000001,"text":"Can global manufacturing ride out the war?"}],[{"start":118.60000000000001,"text":"Survey data due on Monday will offer investors a gauge of how the Iran war has affected global manufacturing."}],[{"start":126.25000000000001,"text":"Given the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed inflation worries, there is concern the sector could enter its first contraction since July 2025. But economists are split on which way April’s JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will break."}],[{"start":143.35000000000002,"text":"Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING, said manufacturing had “entered a period of weakness” and “increased uncertainty”. He expects the survey to move closer to contraction territory."}],[{"start":156.8,"text":"The March survey put the index at 51.3, down from 51.8 in February and closer to the 50 point mark that separates expansion from contraction. Maia Crook, JPMorgan global economist, attributed this to “the drag from geopolitical uncertainty and higher commodity prices”."}],[{"start":176.85000000000002,"text":"Output growth eased to a three-month low in March, while 12 of the 33 countries for which data were available experienced contractions in production volume, including big economies such as the UK, Mexico and Australia."}],[{"start":190.45000000000002,"text":"But Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro, expects a strong pick-up in April, despite the Iran conflict."}],[{"start":198.10000000000002,"text":"Flash PMI surveys from developed economies had risen strongly in the month, although this might have been “flattered” by a lengthening in supply times, he said."}],[{"start":208.25000000000003,"text":"Longer delivery times are typically seen as an indication of manufacturing strength, with high demand slowing the pace of supply. But in April, given the effect of the war, this would probably reflect an increase in global supply bottlenecks, van Dijkhuizen said. Ramsay Hodgson"}],[{"start":223.55000000000004,"text":"Is the US labour market slowing?"}],[{"start":226.05000000000004,"text":"US labour market data due next week will give investors a glimpse into the state of the economy days after separate figures showed an important measure of inflation hitting its highest level since May 2023."}],[{"start":238.20000000000005,"text":"Non-farm payrolls data out on Friday is expected to show that the world’s largest economy added just 60,000 jobs in April according to a Reuters poll of economists, down sharply from the 178,000 added in March."}],[{"start":252.20000000000005,"text":"The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3 per cent. The University of Michigan’s closely watched index of consumer sentiment, also due on Friday, is seen slipping to a reading of 49.4 from 49.8, underscoring rising concerns that high prices are squeezing shoppers."}],[{"start":271.50000000000006,"text":"Bank of America analysts expect US consumers to “be able to muddle through this year” as economic growth remains resilient. They warned, however, that wage growth “continues to cool gradually, job growth is relatively soft, and most importantly inflation has accelerated”."}],[{"start":289.1000000000001,"text":"The Iran war has pushed oil prices far in excess of $100 a barrel and petrol prices at the pump across the US to above $4 a gallon, intensifying pressure on consumers ahead of November’s US midterm elections."}],[{"start":304.3500000000001,"text":"Recent data showed that the US economy grew at an annualised pace of 2 per cent in the first three months of this year, below the 2.2 per cent forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg."}],[{"start":316.6500000000001,"text":"Headline inflation, which is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose to 3.5 per cent in March, its highest level in almost three years. George Steer"}],[{"start":332.6500000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777820963_1198.mp3"}