{"text":[[{"start":6.3,"text":"The writer is a programme director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and author of the forthcoming book ‘We Shall Outlast Them: Putin’s Global Campaign to Defeat the West’"}],[{"start":17.85,"text":"Two months into the Iran war, Russia has secured tangible benefits. It has raked in extra billions in oil revenues. It has stepped up its ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine, which suffers from a shortage of air defences. And it can watch gleefully as Operation Epic Fury turns into the US’s own “special military operation” gone awry."}],[{"start":40,"text":"Yet, the war has also had an unwelcome side effect for Vladimir Putin: it has put Ukraine on the Middle Eastern map. Woefully unequipped to deal with Iranian drone and missile attacks, the Gulf states have turned to Ukraine for support. While such co-operation hardly heralds a definitive pivot away from Moscow for these countries, it marks the latest setback for Russia, which has in recent years seen its fortunes decline in the Middle East."}],[{"start":64.85,"text":"As Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the region in response to the US-Israeli attack in late February, Volodymyr Zelenskyy moved swiftly to leverage Ukraine’s hard-won expertise in countering Russian drones. He sent interceptor drones to protect US bases in Jordan. He initiated talks with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, offering Ukraine’s drone technology in return for diplomatic support and energy deals. As part of the package, Ukraine has promised training, software updates and co-production lines for its technologies, laying the foundation for durable defence partnerships."}],[{"start":103.39999999999999,"text":"The US and Iran may have settled into a brittle limbo of neither war nor peace. But Gulf countries must assume that the Iranian regime, should it survive, will retain the ability to mass-produce drones that can hit targets on their shores at will. They, too, have an interest in long-term agreements with a Ukraine that provides adaptable and scalable solutions. "}],[{"start":125.25,"text":"At the same time, the Gulf states must navigate Ukraine’s promising courtship under the Kremlin’s watchful eye. They still enjoy extensive economic ties with Russia, including in Opec+. They must also contend with Russia on the UN Security Council. In early April, Moscow vetoed a Gulf-supported resolution that called for action to open the Strait of Hormuz. These complex interests explain why the Gulf states have refrained from calling out the Kremlin — notwithstanding mounting evidence of Russian assistance to Iran with targeting data and operational guidance. "}],[{"start":159.8,"text":"A battered and hardened Iran could turn to Russia for further support as it seeks to rebuild its military capacity postwar. If the Gulf States are to rein in such defence co-operation, they must stay on speaking terms with Moscow. In 2024, Saudi Arabia played a role in convincing Russia not to provide missiles to the Iran-backed Houthis, and Riyadh may hope to lean on Putin in the future. That risk of increased Russian backing of Iran is not lost on Israel, which has avoided loudly shaming Moscow while engaging in quiet shows of force to communicate its red lines."}],[{"start":196.35000000000002,"text":"Still, the need to tread carefully will not keep the Gulf countries from deepening their co-operation with Ukraine. Publicly, Russia has either mocked or outright ignored Zelenskyy’s nimble wartime diplomacy. But the Kremlin won’t be pleased about the Middle East’s newfound interest in Ukraine, which coincides with Russia’s weakening position in the region."}],[{"start":217.25000000000003,"text":"Having sunk its resources into its campaign against Ukraine, Russia in late 2024 abandoned its longtime ally, Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime. After Assad fled to Moscow just before Damascus fell to a rebel army, the Kremlin then had to watch the US and Israel attack Iran last summer. Russia managed to build budding ties with Syria’s new rulers — but so did Ukraine. "}],[{"start":243.60000000000002,"text":"Amid the current war, the Kremlin offered itself as mediator, only to be upstaged by Pakistan. In short, Russia is playing a weakened hand in the Middle East today, compared with the peak of its power projection a decade ago. Regional states must avoid antagonising Moscow, but Moscow must also avoid antagonising them. Ukraine, meanwhile, can hope to reap gains from its forays far beyond the Middle East. Capitalising on the momentum of his Gulf tours, Zelenskyy has negotiated defence-industrial co-operation deals with nations in Europe and in the South Caucasus. "}],[{"start":279.15000000000003,"text":"He thereby ensures that a growing number of countries have material stakes in Ukraine’s continued survival and prosperity. That’s a prudent strategy for a country fighting a war of attrition with no end in sight. "}],[{"start":290.40000000000003,"text":"While the US-Israeli war against Iran may have provided a short-term boon for Russia, it is Ukraine that could score the bigger long-term gains."}],[{"start":306.30000000000007,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777418907_1283.mp3"}