Santa’s good and bad economies list - FT中文网
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2025年度报告

Santa’s good and bad economies list

It has been a very mixed year for reforms and sensible governance
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":7.13,"text":"From the very first Christmas, the holiday has been associated with gift-giving. But this seasonal generosity never shed an old moralistic streak of sorting people into the more or less deserving. In many traditions, Santa Claus is a keeper of ledgers, designating children as good or bad. But what if St Nicholas did the same for economic governance? Which nations — and leaders — would receive gifts, or lumps of coal?"}],[{"start":35.47,"text":"The US president might find himself on the naughty list. Although the global economy has weathered Donald Trump’s chaotic policymaking, most analysts are pretty confident economic activity and markets would have done even better without it. After all, he has upended the global trading system, created enormous legal uncertainty, undermined confidence in the US dollar, and neglected both America’s shaky public finances and the affordability crisis confronting most of the population."}],[{"start":67.81,"text":"A lump of coal for Britain, too, perhaps. Coming up to a year and a half in office, the Labour government has pushed up taxes, reversed efforts to streamline benefit spending, and raised uncertainty with its lacklustre communication ahead of Budgets. Hiring and investment have been downbeat. It promised to drive growth and bring stability. So far, it has delivered neither."}],[{"start":92.81,"text":"China is a tough one. Santa might admire its manufacturing prowess and its innovative power, if not the methods it took to get there. But as its record $1tn trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025 showed, Beijing has not done enough to reduce dependence on external demand. It has dragged its feet on efforts to boost domestic consumption via welfare reforms, seems unable to shift from its huge subsidy-led industrial model and has not cleared up the fallout from the burst housing bubble."}],[{"start":130.24,"text":"It is harder to identify the nice than the naughty. But Trump’s America First agenda has forced many nations into rapid and impressive reforms. Take India. After the US president slapped punitive duties on the country, it enacted reforms to simplify its system of internal state taxes. Last month it also passed a long called-for labour market reform package that promises to ease compliance burdens for businesses, improve flexibility and raise security for workers."}],[{"start":165.82,"text":"Honourable mentions go to several countries on the Eurozone’s southern rim, too. Spain, Portugal and Greece have been racking up respectable growth rates after the pandemic, in part due to painful public finance reform efforts over the previous decade. Spain’s continued welcome of immigrants and ability to integrate them into the jobs market has made it Europe’s standout economy this year. Its next challenge is to drive up productivity growth. With a few exceptions, prior fiscal and monetary reforms in several emerging markets meant they, too, remained resilient amid Trump’s trade war."}],[{"start":204.85,"text":"Then there is the tricky case of Germany. The welcome reform of its debt brake, which had restrained domestic demand, was overdue. It has made budgetary choices to deliver a promised defence spending boost. A number of recent reforms including faster infrastructure planning and more sustainable pensions are helpful. But this still falls short of the nation’s challenge. And on the EU stage, Berlin has been unhelpful, in particular by causing the 2035 phaseout of internal combustion engines to be reversed. It is tempting to ask Santa if a name can be on both lists."}],[{"start":245.44,"text":"Of course, everyone stops believing in Santa; and political leaders should not govern for gold stars. In fact, sound policymaking is often low on immediate reward, warrants tough choices and rarely pleases everyone. The hope then for this Christmas is that leaders choose reform next year because it works, not because it wins them gifts."}],[{"start":277.07000000000005,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1766965577_2758.mp3"}

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