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In their meetings at the White House on Monday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European allies averted another diplomatic disaster after the fiasco of Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week. In Anchorage, the US president rolled over and aligned himself with Russia’s stance on ending the war. Many in Europe feared Trump would railroad Zelenskyy into a bad deal or punish him for rejecting one. Some skilfully co-ordinated messaging and plenty of flattery by the European side helped to avoid what would have been a terrible outcome for Ukraine, European security and the survival of the west.
在唐纳德•特朗普上周与弗拉基米尔•普京举行的阿拉斯加峰会惨败后，弗拉基米尔•泽连斯基及其欧洲盟友在周一的白宫会晤中避免了另一场外交灾难。在安克雷奇，这位美国总统作出让步，并在结束战争的问题上让自己与俄罗斯的立场保持一致。欧洲许多人担心特朗普会逼迫泽连斯基接受一项糟糕的协议，或者因拒绝而惩罚他。欧洲方面通过巧妙协调的信息传递以及大量的恭维，帮助为乌克兰、欧洲的安全以及西方的继续生存避免了一个可怕的结果。
Confident, overly so, in his ability to bring Putin to a peace deal, Trump said he would arrange a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. It is unclear when it will take place or even whether the Kremlin will agree. In Trump’s peacemaking show, optics matter more than substance. The vague prospect of another meeting is enough to keep it moving forward.
特朗普对自己促成普京达成和平协议的能力充满信心，甚至过分自信。他表示将安排俄乌总统举行会晤。但何时举行、甚至克里姆林宫是否会同意，目前都不清楚。在特朗普的“调停秀”中，镜头比内容更重要。另一场会晤的模糊前景就足以继续推进这场秀。
European leaders are pleased that Trump gave them a more sympathetic hearing than they were braced for, but they did not fully wind back the clock to before Alaska. Trump has sided with Moscow over the need for a comprehensive settlement rather than a ceasefire and has dropped any hint of sanctions.
欧洲领导人很高兴，特朗普对他们的态度比他们原先预期的更有同情心，但他们并未能将时钟完全拨回到阿拉斯加峰会前。在需要一项全面和平协议而非停火的问题上，特朗普站在莫斯科一边，并且不再提及任何制裁。
He did say on Monday it was up to Ukraine to discuss issues about land. But he seems to think that Ukraine could end the war “immediately” if it gave up the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk, which would be politically and militarily suicidal for Zelenskyy.
他确实在周一表示，应由乌克兰谈判涉及领土的问题。但他似乎认为，只要乌克兰放弃顿涅茨克剩余地区和卢甘斯克——对泽连斯基而言无异于在政治和军事上自杀——就能“立即”结束战争。
The most promising development was Trump’s support for some kind of US contribution to security guarantees for Ukraine after previously skating over the issue. By all accounts, this was the main topic of Monday’s proceedings. The president gave the Europeans an opening.
最令人振奋的进展是特朗普支持美国为乌克兰的安全保障作出某种贡献，此前他一直避谈这一问题。据各方的说法，这也是周一会晤议程的核心话题。总统给了欧洲人一个契机。
However, there is confusion about what Trump has in mind. He said the US would be “involved” with “co-ordination” of European efforts and air support. He also talked about providing “Article 5-like” protection, a reference to Nato’s mutual defence clause. Steve Witkoff, his credulous envoy, even claimed Russia could accept such a guarantee, another supposed “concession” from Moscow.
不过，关于特朗普是怎么想的仍然存在困惑。他表示，美国将“参与”欧洲行动的“协调”，并提供空中支持。他还谈到提供“类似 第五条”的保护，指北约的集体防御条款。他那位容易上当的特使史蒂夫•维特科夫(Steve Witkoff)甚至声称，俄罗斯可能接受这样的保障——这被说成是莫斯科作出的又一“让步”。
But Nato’s Article 5 is imprecise, obliging each member only to “take such action as it deems necessary” to come to an ally’s aid. Nato’s strength lies in its centralised military command, defence plans and force commitments. Moscow might well agree to a version of Article 5. During talks with Ukraine in 2022, it was open to one, but with Russia taking part — and yielding a veto. Such an arrangement would be a sham guarantee.
但北约的第五条并不精确，只要求各成员国“采取其认为必要的行动”来支援盟友。北约的实力在于其集中化的军事指挥、防务计划和武力承诺。莫斯科很可能会同意某种版本的第五条。在2022年与乌克兰谈判期间，它对此持开放态度，但要求俄罗斯参与——并拥有否决权。这样的安排不过是假保障。
The Ukrainians rightly demand robust and meaningful commitments from allies to come to its aid. In the absence of Nato membership, it would be better for the US to provide intelligence, reconnaissance and air support for a European mission. But that would require a willingness by all to fight back if attacked by Russia.
乌克兰人完全有理由要求盟友在支援方面作出强力且有意义的承诺。在未加入北约的情况下，由美国为欧洲的行动提供情报、侦察与空中支援更合适。但这意味着一旦遭到俄罗斯攻击，所有相关方都必须有意愿进行反击。
Senior officials on both sides of the Atlantic are beginning more detailed work on what guarantees might mean. Better late than never. Trump has a propensity to ignore the difficult details of any negotiation. He flip flops and then lands on the broad contours of a deal, with little regard to what it means in practice. It is bad enough in trade relations but worse in matters of war and peace.
大西洋两岸的高级官员正开始更细致地研究保障意味着什么。迟做总比不做好。特朗普习惯于无视谈判中的棘手细节。他反复摇摆，最终只停留在协议的大致轮廓上，而很少考虑其实际意义。这在贸易关系中已经够糟了，在关乎战争与和平的问题上更糟糕。
To stand any chance of bringing peace to Ukraine, Trump has to grapple with the core contradiction: Ukraine will not agree to give up land under its control; Russia will reject any security guarantee that looks credible. It may be possible to chart a way through, but not without the US paying more attention to detail and applying more pressure on Moscow.
要想为乌克兰带来和平，特朗普必须直面核心矛盾：乌克兰不会同意放弃其控制下的领土；俄罗斯将拒绝任何看起来可信的安全保障。也许可以找到一条和平之路，但如果没有美国对细节投入更多关注并对莫斯科施加更大压力，这将无从实现。