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The laws of hydraulics are broken. Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to second-term lows yet the Democratic party’s have fallen even further. They ought to be soaring. Just a third of Americans approve of them. Much the same can be said of centrist and centre-left parties across the west. The odd one out is Canada. That is because Mark Carney’s Liberal party is the staunchest defender of Canada’s sovereignty — the opposition having been too cosy with Trump. But Canada is the exception that proves the rule. Western liberalism is still on the retreat.
水力学定律被打破了。唐纳德•特朗普的支持率已降至其第二任期的最低点，然而民主党的支持率却跌得更惨。他们的支持率本应飙升才对。如今只有三分之一的美国人认可民主党。西方各国的中间派和中左翼政党也大多如此。唯一的例外是加拿大。这是因为马克•卡尼领导的自由党是加拿大主权最坚定的捍卫者——而反对派则与特朗普走得太近。但加拿大只是个例外，证明了西方自由主义仍在退缩这一普遍规律。
Where liberal democratic parties are in power, normal hydraulics still work. A year after taking office, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour is lucky to poll at 25 per cent. Nigel Farage’s seven-year-old populist Reform party is meanwhile attracting almost a third of voters. Less than three months after taking office, Germany’s two big parties are neck and neck with far right Alternative for Germany. This is in spite (or maybe because) of the fact that German intelligence recently branded AfD as rightwing extremist.
在自由民主党执政的地方，正常的水力学定律依然有效。基尔•斯塔默爵士领导的工党上任一年后，民调显示支持率能达到25%，这已经算是幸运的了。与此同时，奈杰尔•法拉奇领导的成立七年的民粹主义改革党则吸引了近三分之一的选民。上任不到三个月，德国两大政党就与极右翼的德国选择党势均力敌。尽管（或许是因为）德国情报部门最近将德国选择党打上了极右翼的标签，但情况依然如此。
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far right Rassemblement National likewise polls streets ahead of the other parties in spite of Le Pen having been debarred from running in the next presidential election.
在法国，尽管玛丽娜•勒庞被禁止参加下届总统选举，但她领导的极右翼政党国民联盟在街头民意调查中同样领先于其他政党。
Of the major European nations, Italy’s hard right Giorgia Meloni has the highest approval rating. Even Trump, who is sinking into a self-created doldrum, has his head above water. His recent 37 per cent Gallup rating is well above the Democratic party. When the left is in office, populists make hay. When the right holds power, the left rarely do. For further evidence, see Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel and Narendra Modi’s India.
在欧洲主要国家中，意大利极右翼的焦尔贾•梅洛尼的支持率最高。就连深陷自我制造的困境中的特朗普，也还能勉强维持。他最近37%的盖洛普民调支持率远高于民主党。左翼执政时，民粹主义者得势；右翼掌权时，左翼则很少能有所作为。更多证据可见本雅明•内塔尼亚胡领导的以色列和纳伦德拉•莫迪领导的印度。
That there are multiple causes of western liberalism’s malaise makes it harder to fix. Complexity encourages infighting. Long after Taylor Swift hits retirement age, Democrats will still be arguing over whether Joe Biden was too old to run, or too selfish to step down sooner. They might also still be debating whether the left is too woke or not woke enough. Can the left in office do more to improve the economy for the blue-collar classes? Does immigration enrich society or further squeeze the working class? Should there be a wealth tax? Is Israel committing war crimes? Such questions reliably divide.
西方自由主义弊病的根源多重，使其更难修复。复杂性助长了内讧。即使在泰勒•斯威夫特退休很久之后，民主党人仍会争论乔•拜登是否年纪太大不适合参选，或者是否太自私而不能提前下台。他们或许还会争论左翼是过于清醒还是不够清醒。执政的左翼能否为改善蓝领阶层的经济状况做出更多贡献？移民是丰富了社会还是进一步挤压了工人阶级？是否应该征收财富税？以色列是否犯下了战争罪？这些问题无疑会造成分裂。
Beyond the internal divisions, contemporary liberalism has two character defects that augur badly for its resurgence. The first is lack of conviction. It is all very well pointing out the dangers of Trump, Farage, Le Pen and others. It would be negligent not to. But making the negative case is not enough. “I might not be beautiful but have you seen that ugly person next to me?” said no winner of a beauty contest ever. “Stronger together”, “When we fight, we win” or campaign variations thereof do not mask the uncertainty beneath. As Bill Clinton once said, strong and wrong always beats weak and right. Focus groups cannot solve this.
除了内部分歧之外，当代自由主义还有两个性格缺陷，预示着其复苏的危险。首先是缺乏信念。指出特朗普、法拉奇、勒庞等人的危险固然很好，但如果不这样做，那就是疏忽。但仅仅提出负面论据是不够的。“我可能不漂亮，但你看到我旁边那个丑陋的人了吗？”从来没有选美比赛的获胜者会这么说。“团结就是力量”、“当我们战斗时，我们就会胜利”或类似竞选口号的变体，都无法掩盖其背后的不确定性。正如比尔•克林顿曾经说过的，强势的错误总是战胜弱势的正确。焦点小组无法解决这个问题。
Western liberalism’s second defect is intolerance.
西方自由主义的第二个缺陷是缺乏宽容。
American liberals were at their worst during the pandemic. That anti-vaxxer conservatives were even crazier should be no comfort. One day, it seemed, Dr Anthony Fauci was telling America that masks were not essential. The next, Rochelle Walensky, then head of the Centers for Disease Control was insisting that two-year-olds should be masked all day. Anyone entertaining the theory that the virus might have come from a Wuhan lab was dismissed as Sinophobic or worse. In December 2020, when vaccines became available, the Chicago Teachers Union tweeted, “The push to reopen schools is rooted in sexism, racism, and misogyny.”
疫情期间，美国自由派情绪最为低落。反疫苗保守派更加疯狂，这实在令人难以接受。前一天，安东尼•福奇博士还在告诉美国民众，口罩并非必需品。第二天，时任美国疾病控制与预防中心主任的罗谢尔•瓦伦斯基却坚持两岁儿童应该全天佩戴口罩。任何持有病毒可能来自武汉实验室观点的人都会被斥为恐华症患者，甚至更糟。2020年12月，疫苗问世后，芝加哥教师工会在推特上写道：“推动学校复课的根源在于性别歧视、种族主义和厌女症。”
Everyone could agree back then that otherwise liberal Sweden was foolish to take the herd immunity route. That Sweden ended up with one of the lowest mortality rates in Europe has not been similarly highlighted. Covid is not ancient history. Any survey probing why so many young voters are turning right that excludes their pandemic experience is wasting time. The road to recovery starts with looking in the mirror. The seminal book, In Covid’s Wake: How Our Politics Failed Us, by two Princeton scholars should be compulsory reading across the spectrum. That it has not been reviewed by most major newspapers is troubling.
当时所有人都同意，在其他方面自由的瑞典采取群体免疫路线是愚蠢的。瑞典最终成为欧洲死亡率最低的国家之一，这一点并没有得到同样的重视。新冠并不是古老的历史。任何调查为什么这么多年轻选民转向右翼，而不考虑他们的疫情经历，都是在浪费时间。恢复之路始于照照镜子。普林斯顿大学两位学者的开创性著作《In Covid’s Wake: How Our Politics Failed Us》应该是所有人的必读书目。大多数主要报纸都没有对它进行评论，这令人不安。
As go social distancing rules, so goes free speech.
随着社交距离规则的实施，言论自由也随之消失。
Liberals said, “Follow the science”, which confused science with faith. Science is a trial and error process that only works with openness to dissent. The same applies to political debate on campus, within newspapers, at think-tanks and society at large. To many younger voters, particularly men, today’s liberal establishment looks more like a conservative one. Educated elites confect orthodoxy on what we should say and do. The resemblance to high Victorianism is more than passing. Victorians regulated manners and etiquette. They also dreaded the mob.
自由主义者说“遵循科学”，这混淆了科学与信仰。科学是一个反复试验的过程，只有在对异议持开放态度的情况下才能发挥作用。这同样适用于校园、报纸、智库以及整个社会的政治辩论。对许多年轻选民，尤其是男性选民来说，今天的自由派建制派更像是保守派。受过教育的精英们炮制出关于我们应该说什么、做什么的正统观念。这与维多利亚时代盛行的生活方式并非一时兴起。维多利亚时代的人规范着礼仪。他们也惧怕暴民。
Expanding religions look for converts. Waning ones hunt down heretics. In form and content, western liberalism is dangerously close to the latter.
扩张中的宗教寻求皈依者。衰落中的宗教则追捕异端者。西方自由主义在形式和内容上都危险地接近后者。
The good news is that liberalism has rebounded before after losing self-belief. The bad news is that it took a genocidal second world war to rediscover its necessity. Hoping that humanity is on a learning curve is not a strategy. The positive case for liberal democracy in today’s world is still waiting to be heard.
好消息是，自由主义在失去自信后曾一度反弹。坏消息是，直到第二次世界大战爆发，人们才重新发现了它的必要性。寄希望于人类不断学习并非明智之举。自由民主在当今世界的积极意义仍有待发掘。