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After passing his tax-cutting “big, beautiful bill”, Donald Trump has been busy reviving his protectionist agenda. Last week the US president extended the 90-day pause on his “liberation day” import duties until August 1, and wrote punchy letters and social media posts to key trade partners, goading them to strike quick deals with his administration. He also proposed a 50 per cent levy on copper and a 200 per cent charge on pharmaceutical products. Wall Street, however, reacted nonchalantly. The S&P 500 continues to trade close to record highs, over 25 per cent above the lows it dipped to in the aftermath of Trump’s initial April 2 “reciprocal” tariff announcements.
在通过其削减税收的“伟大而美丽的法案”后，唐纳德•特朗普正忙于重启其保护主义议程。上周，这位美国总统将他所谓“解放日”进口关税的90天暂停期延长至8月1日，并向主要贸易伙伴写信及发布激烈的社交媒体帖文，激将他们尽快与其政府达成协议。他还提议对铜征收50%的关税，对药品征收200%的关税。然而，华尔街反应平淡。标普500指数仍在接近历史高位的水平交易，较4月2日特朗普首次宣布“对等”关税后出现的低点上涨了逾25%。
With the president’s on-and-off levy declarations, it is indeed difficult to track where US tariff rates are, let alone predict where they will end up. That said, incorporating policy announcements through to July 13, the Yale Budget Lab estimates that the overall US average effective tariff rate could rise to its highest in over a century — and around eight times higher than where it was last year. At these levels, most economists would expect tariff-induced price rises eventually to sap profit margins and growth. If so, the US stock market has not received the message. Risk appetite remains high and valuations are rich.
由于总统反复无常地宣布征税，人们确实很难判断美国的关税水平现处于何处，更别提预测最终会达到何种程度。不过，耶鲁预算实验室在纳入截至7月13日的政策公告后估算，美国平均有效关税率可能升至一个多世纪以来的最高水平——大约是去年的8倍。在这种水平下，大多数经济学家预期，关税导致的价格上涨最终将侵蚀企业利润率并拖累经济增长。如果真是如此，美国股市似乎并未接收到这一信号。市场风险偏好依然强烈，估值依然高昂。
There are two dominant explanations for the bullishness. First, investors have warmed to the idea that the president won’t actually follow through with his worst tariff threats — also known as the “Trump Always Chickens Out”, or “Taco”, trade. The president certainly has form in postponing or cancelling harmful economic policies. Second, the duties in place so far — including a 10 per cent universal tariff — have not yet had a significant impact on inflation or economic growth.
市场情绪乐观主要有两个解释。第一，投资者越来越相信总统不会真正兑现其最严厉的关税威胁——这一逻辑也被称为“特朗普最终会退缩”（Trump Always Chickens Out，简称“Taco”）交易。总统确实有推迟或取消有害经济政策的前例。第二，到目前为止已经实施的关税——包括一项10%的通用关税——尚未对通胀或经济增长造成显著影响。
Both narratives are worryingly rose-tinted. It still requires a leap of faith to assume Trump will back away from implementing tariffs on August 1. Last week the president claimed that his import duties had been “very well received”, citing the stock market reaction.
然而，这两种说法都带有令人担忧的过度乐观色彩。认为特朗普会在8月1日收手，仍然是一种理想化的假设。上周，总统声称他的进口关税“反响很好”，理由是股市的表现。
America’s current economic performance is also a poor indicator of how it may fare in the coming months. Stockpiling has helped to restrain the pass-through of tariffs into consumer prices. Numerous companies have withdrawn earnings guidance amid the uncertainty too. Moreover, Trump’s full tariff package is yet to be enacted. The administration is mulling further sector-specific duties, which could pinch the US tech industry, the driving force behind America’s stock market strength. For these reasons, second-quarter company results over the coming weeks ought to be parsed carefully.
美国当前的经济表现也并不能有效预测其未来数月的走向。企业提前囤货帮助抑制了关税向消费者价格的传导。不少公司也在不确定性中撤回了业绩指引。此外，特朗普的完整关税方案尚未实施。政府正考虑推出更多针对特定行业的关税，这可能会冲击推动美股上涨的核心动力——科技行业。正因如此，未来几周公布的第二季度企业财报需要格外仔细研判。
Broader policy risks have also grown. Last week, the White House accused the Federal Reserve chair, Jay Powell, of “grossly” mismanaging a refurbishment of the central bank’s headquarters. That opened a new front in the administration’s destabilising attacks on the central bank’s independence. Trump’s deficit-raising budget bill is adding to concerns over the sustainability of America’s public finances. The economy is losing momentum too: the jobs market is cooling and consumer spending has weakened.
更广泛的政策风险也在上升。上周，白宫指责美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔在美国央行总部翻新工程中“严重失职”，这开启了政府对央行独立性破坏性攻击的新战线。特朗普提高赤字的预算案也加剧了外界对美国公共财政可持续性的担忧。经济本身也正在失去动能：就业市场正在降温，消费者支出也已转弱。
Corporate America has shown its resilience by confounding the gloomiest forecasts so far, and Trump might once again chicken out. But the heightened uncertainty alone is enough reason for investors to exercise caution. A correction from current heights would be painful: stock markets are heavily concentrated and the share of household assets held in equities is also near a historic high. Right now, US stocks appear priced for the most optimistic of outcomes. With a capricious leader in the White House, that looks more like blind faith than rational thinking.
美国企业界迄今表现出韧性，令最悲观的预测落空，特朗普也可能再次选择退让。但仅就日益加剧的不确定性而言，投资者就已足以应保持谨慎。从当前高位回调将是痛苦的：股市结构高度集中，家庭资产中股票所占比例也接近历史高位。目前，美国股市的定价似乎反映了最为乐观的预期。但在白宫有一位反复无常的领导人的情况下，这看起来更像是一种盲目的信仰，而非理性的思考。