The writer is deputy head of the Middle East and north Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
President Donald Trump has rolled the dice with his strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Before he is dragged into a never-ending war on Israel’s terms, he must now do something even more radical: strike a deal on terms that Tehran can accept.
The US hit three facilities inside Iran, including the notorious Fordow site. This is a big psychological blow for Tehran, and will trigger a counter escalation. Iran launched a heavy missile bombardment inside Israel and is also likely to retaliate directly against the US. How Iran hits back depends on several factors. First, it will take stock of its remaining nuclear capabilities. While huge attention has been focused on Fordow, it has distracted from the fact that international inspectors no longer have full visibility over where Iran’s large quantity of highly enriched uranium — the key ingredient for making a bomb — is being stored, and how much of it is left. The threat of reconstituting its nuclear programme gives it some leverage if negotiations with the US resume.
Second, Iran will carefully assess the messaging — particularly via back channels — around the US strikes. If Washington has relayed to Tehran that these strikes are intended to be a one-off and Trump’s administration is open to serious dealmaking, Iran is likely to calibrate its counter strikes in ways that doesn’t burn diplomatic bridges.
Finally, what Iran’s leaders do next will depend on how they believe Israel can best be deterred in the future. Iran wants to ensure it does not become another Lebanon, where Israel is violating the November ceasefire on a regular basis. But its options are now limited. The deterrence equation has fundamentally changed in the past year. Tehran once relied on being a nuclear threshold state, loyal armed groups on Israel’s borders, and its missile capacity to stop Israel from directly attacking Iran. All have now been compromised.
Washington and Tehran were engaged in talks aimed at reaching a new nuclear deal until just before Israel’s attack on June 13. The great irony of recent events is that although Trump claims he seeks to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, he has made it far more likely that Iran eventually becomes a nuclear state. Iran is at war with both Israel and the US, with little prospect of sanctions relief. The country’s leaders could now be willing to endure the pain associated with completing the weaponisation process.
Trump’s decision could result in a broader regional war. While Iran certainly cannot win the military fight, it hopes to ensure that only losers emerge from it. There is still a narrow diplomatic window to avert a quagmire. Washington remains vocal about its preference for a negotiated deal, and a diplomatic “off-ramp” that ends the war is Iran’s best option.
Iran should surprise the world by taking a radical gamble of its own: offering to meet US vice-president JD Vance in exchange for the US halting Israeli strikes during talks. In conjunction, it might announce its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to signal strength to its own public while avoiding more drastic escalation such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking US bases. During the three-month waiting period for withdrawal Iran should improve access to inspectors, which will be central to any future nuclear deal.
For this to work, Trump must shift away from the maximalist demands that opened the door to war, including imposing zero enrichment. And Iran will need to show more flexibility — perhaps accepting a pause in enriching uranium or eventually doing so as part of a regional nuclear consortium. Taking a radical diplomatic path offers Tehran a face-saving route to halt the conflict and engage directly with the US — the only country that can deliver what Iran needs. It also offers Trump the only way to deliver peace through strength while keeping the US out of an endless war.