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The writer is a professor of law at Seoul National University
本文作者是首尔大学法学教授
South Korea has beaten its own record once again. The country has registered a new low in its already faltering birth rate. The rate for 2023 was just 0.72. This is an unprecedented number in the global community (the average for OECD countries was 1.58 in 2021).
韩国再次打破了自己的记录。韩国本已岌岌可危的出生率再创新低。2023年的出生率仅为0.72。这在全球社会中都是史无前例的（2021年经合组织国家的平均出生率为1.58）。
At the current pace, the South Korean population will be halved by 2100 to just 24mn. In 2022, 249,000 babies were born. For the country’s labour market to function, South Korea needs 500,000 babies a year at a minimum. It is operating at half that figure.
按照目前的速度，到2100年，韩国人口将减少一半，仅为2400万。2022年，韩国出生了24.9万名婴儿。韩国的劳动力市场要正常运转，每年至少需要50万名婴儿。而韩国目前只有这个数字的一半。
And don’t forget that this is the scorecard after the injection of around $247bn by the government since 2006. A host of childcare vouchers and direct grants have not had the desired impact.
别忘了，这是自2006年以来政府注资约2470亿美元后的成绩单。大量的育儿券和直接补助并未产生预期效果。
It was as long ago as 2005 that the birth rate of 1.2 first startled South Korea, causing the government to realise the extent of the problem and begin working on it. The Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy was established. It is still at the helm of national policy. But despite these efforts, South Korea has reached a point where the problem is becoming more of a national emergency.
早在2005年，1.2的出生率首次令韩国震惊，促使政府意识到问题的严重性，并开始着手解决。老龄化社会和人口政策总统委员会应运而生。目前，该委员会仍是国家政策的掌舵者。但是，尽管做出了这些努力，韩国的老龄化问题已经到了国家紧急状态的地步。
The short-sighted, small-family campaigns of the 1970s and 80s played a role in the current predicament — “One child per family is still too many for Korea” was the slogan then. But experts agree that there are two outstanding culprits today: the exorbitant cost of education and housing. Fearful of these twin expenses, young couples have not dared to have and raise children.
20世纪70年代和80年代短视的小家庭运动是造成当前困境的原因之一，当时的口号是“对于韩国来说，每个家庭一个孩子还是太多了”。但专家们一致认为，如今有两个突出的罪魁祸首：高昂的教育和住房费用。由于担心这两方面的开支，年轻夫妇不敢生育和抚养孩子。
The government may be able to find a way to deal with the housing issue. Agencies can control housing prices through taxation and construction permits, and offer preferential packages to families with young children through special laws and regulation. It is difficult and costly, of course, but doable.
政府或许可以找到解决住房问题的办法。有关机构可以通过税收和建筑许可来控制房价，并通过专门的法律和法规为有年幼子女的家庭提供优惠套餐。当然，这很困难，成本也很高，但还是可行的。
When it comes to schooling, however, things are different. A huge number of South Korean children attend private teaching institutions, regardless of whether they also go to public schools. In 2022, South Korea registered its highest tuition expenditure for private education yet, spending almost $20bn. This number does not even show the full picture; there are myriad associated costs, such as those of books, materials, counselling fees and food.
但在学校教育方面，情况就不同了。大量韩国儿童就读于私立教学机构，无论他们是否也在公立学校上学。2022年，韩国的私立教育学费支出达到了迄今为止的最高水平，接近200亿美元。这个数字甚至还不能反映全貌；还有无数的相关费用，如书本费、材料费、辅导费和伙食费。
It is therefore not uncommon for families in Seoul to spend a significant portion of their monthly household income on private education. According to a December 2023 report released by the Federation of Korean Industries, 26 per cent of the drastic drop in birth rates between 2015 and 2022 was attributed to the prohibitive cost of private education for potential parents.
因此，在首尔，将家庭收入的很大一部分用于课外教育是司空见惯的事情。根据韩国经贸团体全国经济人联合会(Federation of Korean Industries)于2023年12月发布的一份报告，2015年至2022年期间出生率的急剧下降中，有26%归因于潜在父母的私人教育成本过高。
This problem is difficult to fix because it is so intertwined with the country’s culture. South Korean society is deeply competitive. This will take time to change. In the meantime, artificial intelligence and digitalisation may have a role to play in reducing the cost of private education.
这个问题很难解决，因为它与这个国家的文化交织在一起。韩国社会竞争激烈。这需要时间来改变。与此同时，人工智能和数字化可能在降低私立教育成本方面发挥作用。
AI-enabled education programmes could replace conventional, late-night in-person cramming at teaching institutions. Digitalisation could help make private education more accessible for poorer families. Of course, both moves have their own perils — the possibility that they might engender further competition between children is an important concern. But with planning, these side-effects can be curbed.
基于人工智能的教育项目可以取代教学机构传统的深夜面对面填鸭式教学。数字化可以帮助贫困家庭更容易接受私立教育。当然，这两种举措都有其自身的风险——它们可能会引发孩子之间进一步的竞争，这是一个重要的问题。但通过规划，这些副作用是可以控制的。
Many countries are witnessing a decline in birth rates. Earlier this month, France, alarmed by the lowest birth rate in almost three decades in 2023 — at 1.68 compared with South Korea’s 0.72 — announced a major reform to its parental leave system. But while South Korea may not be unique in facing this problem, or in attempting to tackle its causes, it stands alone in just how bad things have become.
许多国家的出生率正在下降。本月早些时候，法国对2023年近30年来最低的出生率(1.68，而韩国为0.72)感到震惊，宣布对其育儿假制度进行重大改革。但是，虽然韩国可能不是唯一一个面临这个问题或试图解决其根源的国家，但它在问题的严重程度上是独一无二的。