The oil price surge driven by the war in Iran will prevent central banks in developing nations from quickly lowering borrowing costs and put their long fight to tame inflation to the test, economists warn.
经济学家们警告称，伊朗战争引发的油价飙升将阻碍发展中国家央行迅速降低借款成本，并考验其抑制通胀的长期努力。
Before US and Israeli strikes on Iran, central banks in many emerging markets had been primed to stimulate growth by cutting interest rates after a lengthy battle to defeat high inflation.
美以对伊朗发动战争之前，许多新兴市场国家的央行在多年与高通胀作斗争之后，本已准备通过降息来刺激经济增长。
Some countries, especially in eastern Europe, had already started reducing rates. But others such as South Africa and Brazil, where the benchmark Selic rate is at its highest point in nearly two decades, at 15 per cent, had barely begun. Turkey’s interest rates are still at 37 per cent despite starting to cut them in late 2024.
一些国家，尤其是东欧国家，已经开始降息。但另一些国家，例如南非和巴西（巴西的Selic基准利率目前处于15%的近20年高点），基本上还没有开始降息。土耳其尽管已在2024年末开始降息，但目前利率仍高达37%。