A new Washington consensus is born - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
观点 华盛顿共识

A new Washington consensus is born

The conversion by the IMF and World Bank to the return of the activist state would put Saul of Tarsus to shame
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":11.95,"text":"Anyone who, like me, was a student in the 1990s will remember how international governing institutions were then the chic thing to demonstrate against. "}],[{"start":21.049999999999997,"text":"One image that sticks with me is of a young woman carrying a figure of a three-headed troll, representing (as she earnestly told the media) the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization ravaging the world’s poor. "}],[{"start":33.73,"text":"I wonder what she would think today. "},{"start":35.897,"text":"When the policy outlook on display at the recent IMF and World Bank spring meetings is compared to what drew student ire a quarter of a century ago, it amounts to a conversion that could put Saul of Tarsus to shame. "}],[{"start":47.949999999999996,"text":"The World Bank and the fund were excoriated in the 1980s and ‘90s for making the poor pay for basic health provision or presuming that deficits were bad for growth. "},{"start":56.629,"text":"That is long gone. "},{"start":58.122,"text":"Here is the new Washington consensus: "}],[{"start":61.449999999999996,"text":"Spend big on public health. "},{"start":63.678999999999995,"text":"Fiscal probity, long the core of IMF prescriptions (the joke was that the initials stand for “it’s mostly fiscal”), is no longer about reining in public spending but about getting value for money — and spending more where the value can be found. "}],[{"start":76.69999999999999,"text":"That means doing whatever it takes to produce and deliver vaccines globally. "},{"start":80.99199999999999,"text":"The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor publication estimates that getting the pandemic under control everywhere would “yield more than $1tn in additional tax revenues in advanced economies, [cumulatively], by 2025, and save more in fiscal support measures”. "}],[{"start":96.41,"text":"In other words, what governments spend on vaccinations can pay for itself many times over. "},{"start":101.702,"text":"The fund argues strongly for education spending, too, to make up for lost learning in the pandemic and help workers cope with structural changes going forward. "}],[{"start":110.67999999999999,"text":"The multilateral institutions’ economists at times seem intensely relaxed about massive deficit spending by rich countries. "},{"start":117.472,"text":"The IMF takes a benign view of US President Joe Biden’s mammoth $1.9tn rescue package "}],[{"start":124.69999999999999,"text":"Like other forecasters, it expects US national income to be higher next year than expected before the pandemic. "},{"start":131.054,"text":"And it sees insufficient demand stimulus as having permanent costs: countries whose governments spend less money will suffer more “scarring” that cuts long-term productive potential. "}],[{"start":140.91,"text":"In parallel with all of this, the IMF continues to preach prudence, but that means something very different from a decade let alone a generation ago. "},{"start":149.114,"text":"Strikingly, the fund endorses “recovery contributions” — what others might call temporary solidarity surtaxes — from rich individuals and corporate windfall profits. "}],[{"start":159.64,"text":"The message from the erstwhile headquarters of “neoliberalism” is that to make public finances sustainable, the wealthy and those who have profited from the pandemic should contribute more to the common cause. "}],[{"start":170.69,"text":"The IMF even suggested that rich countries could consider net wealth taxes, apparently channelling leftwing US senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. "}],[{"start":180.10999999999999,"text":"Concerns about inequality were everywhere at the spring meetings. "},{"start":183.75199999999998,"text":"The main policy challenge that the IMF chose to highlight was “managing divergent recoveries” — among countries and among groups within countries — due to the pandemic and in the new normal as economies recover from it. "}],[{"start":195.73999999999998,"text":"Back in the ‘90s, it was a truism the Washington consensus reflected the aligned priorities of two DCs: the international institutions based there and the US government — with the latter to a significant degree driving the former. "}],[{"start":208.89999999999998,"text":"That alignment remains. "},{"start":210.84199999999998,"text":"Multilateral calls for the return of an activist state role dovetail with Biden’s ambition to emulate Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms. "}],[{"start":219.42,"text":"But it is hard to argue today that the IMF and the World Bank simply parrot US preferences, even if being on the same page as their biggest shareholder makes life easier. "},{"start":228.774,"text":"The shift in the thinking of the international economic policy community predated that of the US government. "}],[{"start":234.7,"text":"And the relationship can flow both ways. "},{"start":237.35399999999998,"text":"The White House does not take directions from the multilateral institutions located a few city blocks to the west. "}],[{"start":243.60999999999999,"text":"But it does not hurt Biden that the global guardians of economic orthodoxy have endorsed the most radical US programme in generations, especially when some Americans are engaging in friendly fire. "}],[{"start":254.75,"text":"Politics is the art of the possible — but what is possible is often determined by what is conceivable. "},{"start":260.229,"text":"The new Washington consensus could prove as politically powerful as the old one. "}],[{"start":264.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/001092112-1618199462.mp3"}

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

德国极右翼选择党寻求与特朗普和Maga建立密切关系

为应对在国内被取缔的风险,选择党官员前往美国与共和党高层会面,寻求在限制移民以及联手对抗欧洲推动监管社交媒体等政策上形成共识。

揭秘下一代喷气发动机研发竞赛

为满足波音和空客降低燃油消耗的要求,发动机制造商提出了新的设计方案,包括激进的“开放式风扇”。

中国在发展可再生能源的同时推进燃煤电力项目

今年全球计划投运的104个燃煤发电项目,绝大多数位于中国。

摩根大通认清央行政治化是个坏主意

在特朗普与美联储的博弈中,事关的不只是货币政策。

美国企业遭遇反印裔情绪冲击

在白宫改革技术工人签证后,美国国内针对南亚裔的种族主义言论有所增加。

印度炼油商从委内瑞拉事件中看到机遇

美国政府干预以推翻马杜罗并控制委内瑞拉能源资源的举动,为印度炼油商重新获得委内瑞拉石油打开了大门。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×