What are Donald Trump’s options in Iran?

{"text":[[{"start":9.53,"text":"Fresh off the US military operation in Venezuela, President Donald Trump is weighing a new intervention: this time in Iran, where hundreds of people are said to have been killed in the regime’s crackdown on nationwide protests."}],[{"start":26.07,"text":"But, with some of the president’s advisers cautioning that Iran presents a far more challenging landscape, the prospects that any available military or non-military options can deliver on Trump’s pledge to “rescue” the protesters are fraught with uncertainty — and the risk of backfiring."}],[{"start":48.3,"text":"“Kinetic action is messy and unpredictable, and we’re not good at non-kinetic intervention,” said one former US official focused on Iran and the region. “In any complex system, you cannot do just one thing. Iran is a complex system.”"}],[{"start":66.9,"text":"Some activist groups have estimated more than 500 people have been killed, including dozens of members of the security forces, since nationwide demonstrations erupted across Iran in late December. Thousands of others were believed to have been detained, they said."}],[{"start":85.68,"text":"Trump, who on Monday announced a 25 per cent tariff on countries doing business with Iran, has said he was considering “very strong options” to come to the rescue “if Iran violently kills peaceful protesters”. The White House said Monday these include air strikes."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":105.87,"text":"Military experts and former officials said targets could include Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards’ infrastructure, command and control centres and warehouses of weapons and supplies used by the government and its militias."}],[{"start":124.26,"text":"This could extend to attacks on senior Iranian leaders, they said. During Trump’s first term, the US killed commander Qassem Soleimani, and the president had previously boasted he could also target Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei."}],[{"start":142.49,"text":"But it is unclear whether any of this would get what Washington or the Iranian movement want and could do the opposite."}],[{"start":151.63,"text":"Experts said a military operation could fuel the narrative of the Iranian government, which has blamed “rioters” and “terrorists” for the violence and accused the US and Israel of stoking unrest. Despite Iran’s deep political polarisation, many Iranians rallied around the flag when Israel launched its 12-day war against the country in June, which the US briefly joined."}],[{"start":180.35999999999999,"text":"“You run the risk of doing what you don’t want to do,” one former senior US defence official said of a new military intervention. “You run the risk of unifying the country.”"}],[{"start":193.45,"text":"US military planners also face immense challenges in identifying targets that would encourage defections and further breakdowns in the government’s ability to crack down on demonstrators."}],[{"start":207.63,"text":"Launching military strikes “to protect protesters from the regime’s crackdown is not really an achievable military objective”, said Dana Stroul, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East under the Joe Biden administration."}],[{"start":224.32,"text":"Tehran has so far responded to the waves of protest and Trump’s threats with expanding violence and an internet blackout, as opposed to capitulation."}],[{"start":235.87,"text":"“This is not their first rodeo,” said the former US official who focused on Iran and the Middle East. Khamenei and those around him have long believed that giving in to pressure “invites more aggression”."}],[{"start":249.51,"text":"Trump has previously said that the US “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities and neutered what was once a formidable regional threat after American strikes during the June war."}],[{"start":263.40999999999997,"text":"But during a visit from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month, Trump began to warn of the potential for a new campaign if Iran were found to be rebuilding its nuclear programme."}],[{"start":277.35999999999996,"text":"While Netanyahu has lobbied in favour of this, Trump is constrained by his and his Maga base’s aversion to any long-term military entanglements."}],[{"start":289.73999999999995,"text":"“They’re going for quick wins here. They’re not in the long haul for anything,” said the former official who focused on Iran and the region."}],[{"start":299.16999999999996,"text":"But the successful operation to capture Venezuela’s strongman Nicolás Maduro this month has set off speculation that Trump’s options could include a similar operation to decapitate the Iranian regime."}],[{"start":314.55999999999995,"text":"While some Republicans such as Senator Lindsey Graham have urged the possibility, other advisers to Trump caution that pulling this off in Iran would be vastly more complicated."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":329.10999999999996,"text":"The US in the past year has reduced its military presence in the Gulf and Mediterranean, sending some warships to join Trump’s counter-drug boat campaign in the Caribbean and the Pacific."}],[{"start":343.23999999999995,"text":"“The huge difference between Venezuela and Iran is access,” said the former senior defence official. “Ranges are great. Margins are very small.”"}],[{"start":354.72999999999996,"text":"Tehran has also vowed to retaliate against any American assets in the region, in the event of US strikes, and Trump has vowed to hit back in return “at levels they’ve never been hit before”, increasing the risk of a swift escalation."}],[{"start":372.40999999999997,"text":"A senior Trump administration official said on Monday that “the president is aware of the impacts of all options”, but emphasised that the president still viewed Iran as the greatest state sponsor of terrorism worldwide."}],[{"start":390.24999999999994,"text":"Trump does not always follow through on his threats."}],[{"start":394.5299999999999,"text":"“He has threatened to send Hamas back to the Stone Age a bunch of times. We haven’t seen that,” noted Matthew Levitt, a former US counterterrorism official at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy."}],[{"start":409.25999999999993,"text":"But Trump has nonetheless followed through on other threats enough times so as to create a powerful uncertainty, Levitt and other analysts said."}],[{"start":421.79999999999995,"text":"“Trump is the wild card here,” said the former defence official. “They fear him.”"}],[{"start":429.13999999999993,"text":"On Monday, after Trump said Iran’s leadership had been in touch to negotiate, the administration suggested it was again leaning towards diplomacy."}],[{"start":439.7199999999999,"text":"“Diplomacy is always the first option for the president,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said."}],[{"start":447.00999999999993,"text":"The messages Iran was conveying “privately” were “quite different” from what the regime was saying publicly, “and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages”, she said. But Leavitt added that all other options remained on the table."}],[{"start":463.25999999999993,"text":"The president was “unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary”, she said. “And nobody knows that better than Iran.”"}],[{"start":473.93999999999994,"text":"Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv"}],[{"start":478.3299999999999,"text":"Illustration by Ian Bott"}],[{"start":488.2599999999999,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1768348963_4830.mp3"}