China takes the baton in the humanoid robot race

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":6.43,"text":"For over half a century, the International Robot Exhibition (IREX) has served visitors an exquisitely balanced cocktail of pragmatism and prophecy. The missing component, all of a sudden, is politics."}],[{"start":20.72,"text":"The biennial trade show, held since 1974 in perennially robot-fixated Japan, is first and foremost a showcase of industrial automation — the no-nonsense factory and farm machines that have steadily proliferated. Globally, according to the International Federation of Robotics, companies installed well over half a million of these in 2024; 54 per cent in China, which has, non-coincidentally, spent over a decade as the world’s biggest producer of industrial robots."}],[{"start":57.55,"text":"But the tone and pizzazz of IREX has always been provided by the humanoids. It’s a somehow thrilling spectacle to see robots that look a bit like us, sort of doing things we can do, with the half plea, half promise that they will do so much more — and better — in the indefinite future. "}],[{"start":77.53,"text":"By instinct, Japan has led the world in delighted faith in these humanoids, adopting an endlessly patient parental view that, however expensive, immature, incompetent and work-shy the automatons may appear now, the little darlings will eventually grow up and take their place in society. "}],[{"start":97.51,"text":"Societies, meanwhile, seem wholly unprepared for this graduation, and the political sphere has not even begun to have the sort of debates that may very soon be forced upon it."}],[{"start":110.86,"text":"That needs to change urgently. For two glaring reasons the 2025 IREX, which opened in Tokyo yesterday, felt fundamentally different from its predecessors. The first arises from the nature of the technological progress made since 2023, and the predictions clustered in the background. "}],[{"start":131.71,"text":"Artificial intelligence has advanced rapidly, and appears — to the most optimistic eyes — poised to fill gaps that humanoid service robots have demonstrated in their long stumble towards usefulness. The focus is now less on their physical limitations (although those are steadily falling away), and more on how effectively they can be deployed as vectors for the visibly less limited competencies of AI. "}],[{"start":159.56,"text":"Analysts advising investors on the megatrends of the coming year are hot on the humanoid trail. In a research note, Macquarie analyst Daisy Zhang wrote that 2026 would mark an “inflection year” for humanoid robots and their worldwide commercialisation. Zhang forecast annual humanoid robot sales to hit 50,000 units next year, rising to 1.1mn units a year in 2031. By 2034, she wrote, the “humanoid robot penetration rate” — the number of robots per 10,000 human factory workers — would exceed the rate for industrial robots."}],[{"start":200.49,"text":"In a research note last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley proclaimed that the transition to “embodied AI” marked a pivot in history, forecasting a global humanoid robot market worth $5tn by 2050 and a deployment rate of one machine for every 10 humans. Investors should be very cautious; the history of robots reveals an industry capable of creating a mismatch between promise and reality."}],[{"start":232.18,"text":"The second striking aspect of IREX 2025 was that, while Japan is still a big player in industrial robots, the robot enthusiast baton has been passed to China, which now dominates in humanoids. The Unitree H2, the AgiBot G2, the UBTech Walker S2 — name the android striding towards humanity, it is Chinese. Even Tesla’s imminent Optimus Gen 3 is estimated to mostly comprise Chinese parts."}],[{"start":264.02,"text":"The looming political problem here, closely entwined with AI, is that if the inflection point prophecies for humanoid robots are even half correct, labour markets, economic balances, cultural norms and a great deal more face stunning disruption. The phrase “Freedom from work”, as the slogan for one Chinese roboteer goes, may sound alluring; mass unemployment, for which it may turn out to be a euphemism, less so.  "}],[{"start":292.59999999999997,"text":"The intriguing possibility is that, while China may have emerged as the great robot-maker, Japan is wealthy enough and robot-friendly enough to become one of the first big democracies to experiment with widescale humanoid robot adoption. "}],[{"start":310.04999999999995,"text":"In theory, some argue, Japan’s shrinking population and strained labour force will create less resistance to mechanised replacements for humans. It needs them, and many may actively prefer steel and semiconductors to foreigners and work visas."}],[{"start":327.0799999999999,"text":"But when a robot-engendered crisis arises, the political world needs a way to talk about the new arrivals. The temptation will be to frame this in the same terms as the immigration debate — all the more so if the humanoids are identifiably foreign in their manufacture. That remains to be seen. Robophobia, though, has every chance of emerging as a legitimate, vote-winning political position."}],[{"start":362.86999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1764922816_1752.mp3"}