{"text":[[{"start":8.18,"text":"Oil prices fell to a five-month low on Tuesday after a report from the International Energy Agency estimated a recent “large surplus” of crude supply."}],[{"start":19.78,"text":"Brent dropped as much as 3 per cent to touch $61.50 a barrel, its lowest since early May, and was later down 2.3 per cent on the day."}],[{"start":32.160000000000004,"text":"The fall came after the agency said preliminary data indicated a “massive” build-up in oil shipments in September following a surge in exports by key producers, suggesting that output is now more than consumers need."}],[{"start":49.45,"text":"The overhang will average 3.2mn barrels a day (b/d) from this month through to June 2026, according to IEA estimates. It had previously estimated a surplus of 2mn b/d to last well into next year."}],[{"start":68.44,"text":"If a build-up of crude occurs in the US or Europe, which play more of a role in global oil price formation than China, then this may hit prices, the agency said."}],[{"start":81.53,"text":"The sell-off on Tuesday comes despite the market having been reassured by an announcement from Opec+ earlier this month, when the cartel signalled a shift away from its previous relentless increases in oil production with a modest rise of just 137,000 b/d in November, the same increase as in October."}],[{"start":104.52,"text":"The market welcomed the decision at the time, with Brent crude bouncing by just under 2 per cent to nearly $66 a barrel."}],[{"start":113.27,"text":"Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, said the market was largely unimpressed by the IEA’s bearish forecast on Tuesday."}],[{"start":124.44999999999999,"text":"If the market had been anticipating a massive surplus ahead then prices should already have fallen to take that into account, he said. The fact that did not happen indicates that it is more confident in future demand than the IEA, he added."}],[{"start":142.13,"text":"“Either the market is pricing it completely wrongly or the [estimated] surplus is too elevated,” he said. “I will believe it is a bit on the elevated side.”"}],[{"start":152.57999999999998,"text":"Oil prices have also sagged recently as a result of US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on China and amid the easing of tensions in the Middle East, with a fragile ceasefire and the release of the final living hostages in Gaza."}],[{"start":169.01,"text":"The recent surplus of crude comes after China and other economies had been increasing their stockpiles, with global observed inventories at a four-year high from January to August this year, according to the IEA."}],[{"start":185.33999999999997,"text":"Its estimate of an overhang is in contrast to the view of Opec, which said that “despite speculative activity in the futures market, near-term physical crude fundamentals remained broadly supportive of the market”, in a monthly report on Monday. It maintained its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 from the previous month."}],[{"start":207.56999999999996,"text":"Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Ben Luckock, the head of oil trading at Trafigura, said he expected prices could fall below $60 a barrel before rallying."}],[{"start":220.39999999999998,"text":"“I suspect we’ll go into the $50s at some point across Christmas and the new year,” he said. “It’s a mug’s game to be short [bet on lower prices] in the $50s, so I don’t think it stays there so long.”"}],[{"start":234.89999999999998,"text":"Additional reporting by Malcolm Moore"}],[{"start":246.28999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1760488116_4008.mp3"}