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If your head is spinning after OpenAI’s recent flurry of megadeals, you’re not alone. Hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake — some of it promises future investment from Nvidia, some capital spending on data centres where construction has yet to start and some payments under a giant cloud computing contract with Oracle.
如果OpenAI最近的一连串巨额交易令你头晕目眩，那么你并不是特例。这些交易涉及数千亿美元——其中一部分是英伟达(Nvidia)承诺的未来投资，一部分是尚未开始建设的数据中心的资本开支，还有则是与甲骨文(Oracle)签订的巨额云计算合同下的付款。
Look past the details of this spate of announcements, though, and there’s one overriding message: OpenAI is massively upping the ante. Weeks after the biggest tech companies increased their own capital spending plans, the company that started the generative AI gold rush wants everyone to know that it has put the first pieces in place for the biggest bet of all.
撇开这一连串公告的细节不谈，它们传达了一个最重要的信息：OpenAI正在大幅提高押注。在大型科技公司纷纷上调资本支出计划数周后，这家开启生成式AI淘金热的公司要向所有人表明：它已经为最大的押注铺下第一块基石。
It all looks like a calculated display of self-confidence. OpenAI wants customers, employees and partners across the tech industry to know that it is still leading the charge to superintelligence. That is particularly important at a time when it is involved in a messy overhaul of its corporate structure, and as the once clear technology lead it had in large language models erodes.
这一切看起来就像一场经过精心安排的信心展示。OpenAI希望科技行业的客户、员工和合作伙伴知道，它仍在引领向超级智能的进军。这一点尤为重要，因为该公司正经历一场混乱的公司架构改革，而它在大型语言模型上的曾经明确的技术领先优势也在削弱。
This has also served as the opening salvo for what promises to be an epic assault on the financial markets, as OpenAI and its partners try to line up the financing for their giant bets. Among the questions yet to be answered: who will be on the hook for the data centres built in the hope that AI demand will continue to boom, and where will the cash flow come from to support the mountains of debt that are sure to be involved?
这也成为一场针对金融市场的注定惊心动魄的攻势的开场一击，OpenAI及其合作伙伴正努力为他们的巨额押注筹措资金。仍有待回答的问题包括：谁将为基于人工智能需求将持续繁荣的假设建设的数据中心买单？以及支撑势必产生的天量债务所需的现金流将从何而来？
A back-of-the-envelope tally suggests OpenAI has reached broad agreements that will cover capital spending of about $1tn, some it undertaken by partners in the Stargate project it announced in the Oval Office earlier this year. This includes a deal for Nvidia to invest up to $100bn of equity, supporting data centre spending that could top $500bn, as well as the announcement of five new data centres built by Stargate partners SoftBank and Oracle that might cost another $400bn.
粗略估算，OpenAI已达成的广泛协议将涉及约1万亿美元的资本支出，其中部分由其今年稍早在椭圆形办公室宣布的“星际之门”(Stargate)项目的合作伙伴承担。这包括一项协议：英伟达将投资最高1000亿美元收购股权，支持规模可能超过5000亿美元数据中心支出；此外，其宣布由“星际之门”合作伙伴软银(SoftBank)与甲骨文建设的五座新数据中心可能另需要4000亿美元。
“Back of the envelope” is the operative term here, and it’s far from clear how much of this capacity will ever be built. While the five data centres are projected to be completed over the next three years, the Nvidia deal is open-ended.
这里的关键词是“粗略估算”，而且目前还远不清楚这些算力究竟有多少能真正建成。尽管这五座数据中心预计将在未来三年内建成，但与英伟达的交易则是开放式的。
There are also plenty of practical challenges to building and powering such a huge expansion in data centre capacity. Oracle, which is taking on the lion’s share of the development under the Stargate project, is a relative minnow in this world and is already carrying significant debt.
在建设并为如此大规模的数据中心扩张提供电力方面也存在诸多实际挑战。在“星际之门”项目中承担大部分开发工作的甲骨文，在这一领域的体量相对较小，且已背负大量债务。
Not surprisingly, the many open questions have helped to feed suspicions that the AI market is entering a new and more bubbly phase. How likely is it that OpenAI’s business will support the $300bn in cloud payments it is due to pay Oracle by 2030, or that Nvidia will see the $350-400bn in new chip sales that analysts project from its OpenAI deal?
毫不奇怪的是，众多未解之问正在助长这样的怀疑：AI市场正迈入一个更新、更泡沫化的阶段。OpenAI的业务真能支撑其在2030年前应向甲骨文支付的3000亿美元云服务费用吗？英伟达又能否像分析师预计的那样从与OpenAI的交易中获得3500亿至4000亿美元的新芯片销售收入？
In deciding how much to price in to current valuations, the market has seemed somewhat schizophrenic. OpenAI’s deal with Oracle sent the software company’s shares into the stratosphere, despite the many open questions. But the initial stock price gains this week for Nvidia — which, regardless of the timing of the data centre builds, at least secured an important commitment from OpenAI to remain a key customer — quickly dissipated.
在决定在多大程度上将这些因素计入当前估值时，市场表现得似乎有些分裂。OpenAI与甲骨文达成的交易让这家软件公司的股价窜上天际，尽管许多问题仍悬而未决。但英伟达本周初期的涨幅——不管数据中心建设的时间问题，英伟达至少从OpenAI那里获得了其继续作为关键客户的重要承诺——很快便回吐。
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says his company will lay out its detailed financing plan later this year, while Wall Street analysts are hoping that Oracle will reveal its own financial blueprint at a company event next month. Showing OpenAI and Oracle have serious backers in the wings would go a long way to convincing the markets about their plans.
OpenAI首席执行官萨姆•奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)表示，该公司将在今年晚些时候公布其详细的融资计划；与此同时，华尔街分析师预计甲骨文将在下月的一场公司活动上披露自身的财务蓝图。展示OpenAI和甲骨文背后有强大的支持者，将有助于让市场对他们的计划更有信心。
Nvidia’s commitment of up to $100bn in new equity is critical for OpenAI as it looks to outspend a group of giant tech rivals with powerful balance sheets. But the first $10bn slug of this isn’t due until the first data centre is deployed, something that isn’t expected until the second half of 2026, with the rest only pencilled in for future projects.
英伟达承诺提供最高1000亿美元的新股本，对OpenAI至关重要，因为后者试图在资本支出方面超过一群财力雄厚的大型科技对手。但其中首笔100亿美元要等到首个数据中心部署后才会到位，而这预计要等到2026年下半年；其余资金仅为后续项目所安排。
Ultimately, it will take significant — and sustained — revenue growth from OpenAI to support this whole endeavour. The big jump in capacity from Stargate data centres won’t come online until later this decade. Before then, the company that sparked the AI boom needs to show not only that demand for data centre capacity is continuing to outpace supply, but that customers are willing to pay serious money for its services.
归根结底，要支撑整个计划，OpenAI需要实现显著且持续的营收增长。来自“星际之门”数据中心的算力大幅提升要到本十年晚些时候才能上线。在此之前，这家点燃了人工智能繁荣的公司必须证明两点：对数据中心算力的需求仍在继续超过供给；客户愿意为其服务支付可观的费用。