{"text":[[{"start":9.93,"text":"The European Central Bank has held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2 per cent, with policymakers in a “wait-and-watch” mode ahead of the August 1 deadline for a trade deal between the EU and the US."}],[{"start":23.96,"text":"The decision was widely expected by economists after ECB president Christine Lagarde indicated last month that the central bank had “nearly concluded” its latest rate-cutting cycle."}],[{"start":36.6,"text":"Lagarde said on Thursday that policymakers were “in a wait-and-watch situation” and members of the ECB’s governing council had voted unanimously to keep rates on hold."}],[{"start":48.49,"text":"Risks to growth remained “tilted to the downside”, she said, but the economic outlook could also improve if there is a quick resolution of trade tensions."}],[{"start":59.02,"text":"She repeated an assessment first made in June that “we are in a good place” as annual inflation in the euro area is at 2 per cent — in line with the ECB’s medium-term target — while growth has developed “in a relatively favourable way”."}],[{"start":76.81,"text":"“Our job now is to look at what’s coming,” she said, adding that the inflationary shock of the past few years was “behind us”."}],[{"start":85.56,"text":"The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.178 by late afternoon trading."}],[{"start":92.85000000000001,"text":"Following Thursday’s announcement, traders pared back their bets on further interest rate cuts, reducing the chance of a quarter-point reduction by the end of the year from roughly 90 per cent to 60 per cent, according to levels implied by swaps markets."}],[{"start":110.53,"text":"Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said Lagarde’s remarks at the press conference were “enough to cast doubts on whether they will cut again at all”."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":121.92,"text":"US President Donald Trump this month threatened to impose “reciprocal” tariffs of 30 per cent on EU imports from August 1 should the trade talks fail."}],[{"start":133.52,"text":"But the trading partners are closing in on a deal that would impose 15 per cent tariffs on European imports to the US, according to people familiar with the matter."}],[{"start":145.51000000000002,"text":"Brussels has stressed that its priority is to negotiate an agreement with Washington, but has been preparing retaliatory measures to be deployed should talks fail. Such a move could drive up inflation in the currency bloc and hamper growth."}],[{"start":161.84000000000003,"text":"Asked if a quick trade deal with the US could usher in discussions about the need for interest rate rises rather than more cuts, Lagarde said that the “future will tell”."}],[{"start":172.08000000000004,"text":"“I would not exclude anything for sure,” she said."}],[{"start":176.78000000000003,"text":"Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank, said that if trade uncertainty faded, “the combination of a resilient economy and significant fiscal easing will eventually translate into upside risks to inflation”."}],[{"start":191.67000000000002,"text":"Markets were “not far away from switching focus from the last cut to the first hike”, Wall added."}],[{"start":198.51000000000002,"text":"Thursday’s ECB decision marks the first time in a year that the central bank has not cut rates. Last month’s cut, the seventh consecutive reduction since September, brought rates to their lowest level since December 2022."}],[{"start":216.01000000000002,"text":"Hopes for an EU-US trade deal and a more positive growth outlook lifted European stocks on Thursday and weighed on government bonds. This pushed German 10-year Bund yields up 0.09 percentage points to 2.7 per cent."}],[{"start":239.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1753398575_4109.mp3"}