Last week, when the US president stopped waving a stick at Greenland, it was claimed once again that Trump Always Chickens Out. And perhaps he does. But who suffers in the end?
上周，当美国总统停止对格陵兰挥舞大棒时，人们又一次宣称“特朗普总会临阵退缩”(Trump Always Chickens Out，简称TACO)。也许他确实如此。但最终受害的会是谁？
For the US, Taco is no more than a loss of face. For the rest of the world, it poses a strategic dilemma. After all, if the president can be counted on to renege on his threats at the eleventh hour, the incentive to hedge against America — an expensive business, that — is correspondingly weaker. Why not just wait him out?
对美国而言，“TACO”不过是丢点面子。可对世界其他国家来说，它构成一个战略两难困境。毕竟，如果外界可以指望美国总统在最后一刻收回威胁，那么针对美国进行对冲——这种对冲代价高昂——的动力就会相应减弱。为什么不干脆以静制动，等到他演戏结束？
In other words, it is the hope that gets you. It saps the motivation to become self-sufficient. This threatens to be the tragedy of Europe. Trump offers the continent just enough support to induce a level of complacency but not enough to make the place safe against its enemies. For all his spite, he has still not done what Europe fears most, which is permanently withhold military intelligence from Ukraine or quit Nato or confirm that he would not observe Article 5 if Europe were ever attacked. America’s forward air force base in Ramstein is still there after years of speculation about its future. These twinkles of hope are precious, but also an excuse for Europe to soft-pedal its transition towards being able to look after itself.
换句话说，真正折磨人的正是“希望”。它会削弱人们迈向自给自足的决心。这可能会变成欧洲的悲剧。特朗普给予欧洲的支持不痛不痒：足以诱发某种程度的自满，但不足以让欧洲真正安全，不会受到敌人的侵略。尽管心怀怨恨，但特朗普仍未做出欧洲最担心的事情：永久停止向乌克兰提供军事情报、退出北约(NATO)，或确认如果欧洲遭到攻击，他不会履行北约第五条集体防御条款。多年来，人们对美国在德国拉姆施泰因(Ramstein)的前沿空军基地的未来猜测纷纷，但该基地仍然存在。这些希望的微光固然珍贵，却也成为欧洲放缓迈向自立的借口。