Invest long, borrow short and leverage up as much as possible. That is the way to make money in finance. It is how banks have always made their living. But we also know very well that this story can end in panic-stricken runs for the exit and financial crises. That is what happened in the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-09. Since then, as the Bank for International Settlements explains in its latest Annual Economic Report, the financial system has changed a great deal. But this central characteristic has not.
长线投资、借短债、尽量加杠杆。这是金融业的赚钱之道。银行一直以来都靠这种方式谋生。但我们十分清楚，故事也可能以资金恐慌性出逃和金融危机收场。2007-09年的全球金融危机中就发生了这样的景象。自那以来，就如国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)在其最新《年度经济报告》中所阐述的，金融体系发生了巨大变化。但是这个核心特色并没有改变。
Moreover, notes Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser to the BIS, “despite the fragmentation of the real economy, the monetary and financial system is now more tightly connected than ever”. If this sounds like an accident waiting to happen, you are quite right. Central banks must be prepared to ride to the rescue.
再者，BIS经济顾问申铉松(Hyun Song Shin)指出，“尽管实体经济呈碎片化，如今货币及金融体系却比以往更加紧密联系”。如果这话听上去好像要发生什么事，那你的感觉是对的。各家央行必须做好驰援的准备。
The story the BIS tells is an intriguing one. Thus, the aftermath of the GFC did not make the system fundamentally different. It just changed who was involved. In the run-up to the crisis, the dominant form of lending was to the private sector, particularly in the form of mortgages. Afterwards, lending to the private sector levelled off, while credit to governments exploded. The pandemic accelerated that tendency.
BIS叙述的内容发人深省。所以说，全球金融危机造成的后果并没有让金融体系发生根本转变。变化的只是参与者的身份。在全球金融危机之前，借贷主要提供给私营部门，尤其是以抵押贷款的形式。在全球金融危机之后，对私营部门的放贷归于平缓，而对政府的放贷则爆发式增长。新冠疫情加快了这一趋势。