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A decade ago, half a dozen mavericks assembled in a Swiss house to launch Ethereum — a piece of the crypto ecosystem that acts as a distributed computing platform, using the ether token.
十年前，六个标新立异的人聚集在瑞士的一所房子里，推出了以太坊——加密生态系统的一部分，起到一个分布式计算平台的作用，使用以太币。
It initially looked likely to fail: the founding tribe imploded after bitter internal fights; Ethereum suffered a massive cyber hack; scandals erupted and, like bitcoin, ether’s price became crazily volatile, surging from nothing to $5,000, before collapsing.
它最初看起来很可能会失败：创始团队在经历激烈的内斗后解体；以太坊遭受大规模的网络黑客攻击；丑闻不断，与比特币一样，以太币的价格剧烈波动，从不值什么钱飙升至5000美元，然后又暴跌。
But this week something striking occurred: just as the White House was issuing a report about the “Golden Age of Crypto”, the Nasdaq exchange celebrated Ethereum’s tenth birthday. “Ethereum has demonstrated itself . . . as the definition of antifragile,” enthused Joe Lubin, one former inhabitant of that founding house, who presents the platform as “a reliable trust layer for our fast-growing digital world”.
但本周发生了一件引人注目的事情：就在白宫发布一份关于“加密货币黄金时代”的报告之际，纳斯达克交易所庆祝了以太坊的十岁生日。“以太坊已经证明了自己……的抗脆弱性，”乔•卢宾激动地说，他是以太坊的创始成员，将该平台描述为“我们快速增长的数字世界的可靠信任层”。
Cynics will undoubtedly wince in horror, while enthusiasts will cheer. No wonder: crypto is arguably the single most divisive issue in finance today. However, I would suggest that this anniversary should spark a more realistic — and subtle — judgment. For the past decade has revealed at least five key points about crypto that investors should ponder.
怀疑者无疑会惊恐地退缩，狂热者则欢呼雀跃。难怪：加密货币可以说是当今金融领域最具争议的一个议题。然而，我想说的是，这个周年纪念应该引发一种更实事求是、更微妙的判断。过去十年至少揭示了投资者应该思考的关于加密货币的五个关键点。
First, and most obviously, digital assets are not homogenous (even if detractors hate them all). Bitcoin is a one-dimensional phenomenon that fans liken to “digital gold”, while Ethereum is a multi-faceted infrastructure. Memecoins (like $TRUMP) only float on crazy hype, but stablecoins are supposed to be backed by assets, like Treasuries. This matters.
首先，也是最明显的一点是，数字资产并不非同质的（即使批评者讨厌它们全部）。比特币是一种一维现象，粉丝将其比作“数字黄金”，以太坊则是一个涉及许多方面的基础设施。迷因币（如特朗普币）只会在疯狂的炒作中上下浮动，但稳定币应由资产支持，如美国国债。这一点很重要。
Second, we need to move beyond black-and-white thinking with crypto. The evangelists who declared a decade ago that distributed finance would transform the world were wrong — thus far digital assets are still too clunky, costly and energy-guzzling to displace most mainstream payment options, and too volatile to be a reliable store of value. Criminality has been rife. Just think of the saga of Sam Bankman-Fried, or regulatory censure of the tether stablecoin.
其次，对于加密货币，我们需要超越非黑即白的思维。十年前宣称分布式金融将改变世界的布道者是错误的——到目前为止，数字资产仍然过于笨重、昂贵和耗电，无法取代大多数主流支付选择，也太不稳定，无法成为可靠的价值储存手段。犯罪行为猖獗。看看萨姆•班克曼-弗里德的传奇故事，或者监管机构对稳定币泰达币的批评就知道了。
But doomsayers who predicted crypto’s demise were equally wrong. Digital asset prices have just soared (again), pushing Ethereum and bitcoin’s market capitalisation up to $455bn and $2.3tn respectively. And the $270bn-odd worth of stablecoins in circulation are supported as many transactions as the Visa credit card network in the last year, as Glenn Hutchins, a longtime tech investor, tells me.
但预测加密货币消亡的末日预言家同样是错误的。数字资产价格刚刚（再次）飙升，将以太坊和比特币的市值分别推高至4550亿美元和2.3万亿美元。资深科技投资者格伦•哈钦斯告诉我，去年，流通中的稳定币价值超过2700亿美元，交易量与Visa信用卡网络一样多。
Why? Greed (or speculation) is one factor. But crypto is founded on an interesting innovation (blockchain) that can sometimes be useful (say, for some cross-border payments). Moreover, some key players and regulators are raising standards in response to past scandals and networks like Ethereum are slashing energy usage.
为什么呢？贪婪（或投机）是一个因素。但加密货币是建立在一种有趣的创新（区块链）之上的，这种创新有时是有用的（比如对于一些跨境支付）。此外，一些主要参与者和监管机构正在提高标准，以回应过去的丑闻，像以太坊这样的网络正在削减能源使用。
Third, mainstream finance is moving in. This is ironic, given that early crypto evangelists promised that distributed finance would depose incumbents. But it is driving the current boom. Consider the fact that a top BlackRock executive has just joined an Ethereum investment group; or that traditional asset managers like Fidelity, BlackRock and Vanguard are launching crypto funds; or how mainstream investors are increasingly using crypto as a diversification play, while banks such as JPMorgan are running their own blockchains and launching stablecoins.
第三，主流金融正在加入。这是具有讽刺意味的，因为早期的加密货币传道者曾承诺，分布式金融将取代传统金融机构。但它正在推动当前的繁荣。想想贝莱德的一位高管刚刚加入一个以太坊投资集团；富达、贝莱德和先锋等传统资产管理公司正在推出加密货币基金；或者主流投资者越来越多地使用加密货币作为多元化投资手段，而摩根大通等银行正在运营自己的区块链并推出稳定币。
Fourth, the geopolitics of crypto are shifting — fast. In the past decade, most innovation occurred outside America, in places such as Hong Kong. But this week Paul Atkins, Securities and Exchange chair, said he wants to pull it onshore. Why? One reason is that the Trump family itself is invested in crypto. Another is grubby politics: crypto groups were such big Trump donors in 2024 that luminaries tell me they they won the election for him.
第四，加密货币的地缘政治正在迅速发生变化。在过去的十年里，大多数创新都发生在美国以外，比如香港。但本周，美国证交会主席保罗•阿特金斯表示，他希望让创新回到美国。为什么呢？一个原因是特朗普家族自身也在投资加密货币。另一个是肮脏的政治原因：加密集团是特朗普2024年竞选的大金主，以至于一些知名人士告诉我他们为特朗普赢得了大选。
But geofinance matters too. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent hopes that dollar-based stablecoins will create a new source of demand for Treasuries, and promote more dollar-usage around the world. Consider this a new policy twist on Bretton Woods in the Silicon Valley age.
但地缘金融也很重要。美国财政部长斯科特•贝森特希望以美元为基础的稳定币将为美国国债创造一个新的需求来源，并在全球范围内促进更多的美元使用。可以把这看作是硅谷时代布雷顿森林体系的新政策转折。
Finally, crypto’s second-order effects could turn out to be even more striking than the digital assets themselves. For what the innovation does is enable us to imagine alternatives to the financial and geopolitical status quo — for instance, by asking if we need to rely on the Swift payment system, or dollar dominance.
最后，加密货币的次级效应可能比数字资产本身更引人注目。因为创新的作用是使我们能够想象金融和地缘政治现状的替代方案——例如，通过质疑我们需要依赖Swift支付系统，或者美元的主导地位。
Don’t get me wrong: by making these five points, I am not downplaying the risks. The Trump administration’s conflicts of interest with crypto are shameful. The potential for consumer harm is real. There are financial stability risks due to crypto’s growing links with mainstream finance, and the use of Treasuries to back stablecoins. Criminality and grift exists.
不要误解我的意思：我提出这五点并不是在淡化风险。特朗普政府与加密货币的利益冲突是可耻的。对消费者的潜在伤害是真实存在的。加密货币与主流金融的联系越来越紧密，以及使用美国国债支持稳定币，会带来金融稳定风险。还有犯罪行为和诈骗。
But it is possible to worry about these risks — and want better regulation — but at the same time to recognise that the underlying technology can be useful as a geopolitical and financial diversification tool.
但我们可能会担心这些风险——并希望加强监管——但同时承认这一基础技术可以作为一种地缘政治和金融多元化工具发挥作用。
For these reasons, Ethereum’s “birthday” should prompt enthusiasts and doomsayers alike to realise that neither of them is entirely right. Life is rarely black and white — in finance or anywhere else. That will not change even if (or when) Ethereum turns 20.
由于这些原因，以太坊的“生日”应该促使热情支持者和末日预言者都意识到，他们都并非完全正确。生活很少是非黑即白——无论在金融还是其他任何领域。即使到了以太坊庆祝20周年的时候，这一点也不会改变。
虚拟货币相关活动存在较大法律风险。请根据监管规范，注意甄别和远离非法金融活动，谨防个人财产和权益受损。