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卧底经济学家

Why populism became popular

It appeals more to a way of thinking than to a set of ideas — but is it just wrong?
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":5.88,"text":"Say what you like about the tenets of populism, it certainly seems to be, well, popular. But what are the tenets of populism? It’s easy enough to say what a centre-left party is likely to stand for, or a libertarian. But a populist? Maybe it is a mistake to describe populism as an ideology at all."}],[{"start":27.77,"text":"The Canadian philosopher Joseph Heath recently published an essay making an intriguing argument: maybe populism isn’t a set of beliefs, or even a set of tactics, but an appeal to a way of thinking. Specifically, populists stand for common sense and in opposition to the pretentious theories of the elites."}],[{"start":49.16,"text":"“People are not rebelling against economic elites,” writes Heath. Instead, this is “a rebellion against [cognitive] executive function”. In this view, populism is a movement that appeals to people who trust their gut, rather than those who rely on some too-clever-by-half argument."}],[{"start":68.53999999999999,"text":"There is a lot that rings true about this suggestion. Consider the following intuitive, common sense ideas: if we let immigrants come here and work, they’ll take our jobs; we should levy taxes on imports to help protect our economy from foreign competition; crime can only be controlled by getting tough on criminals. These ideas may be true or false, but the point is that they all have populist appeal, and they all seem kind of obvious."}],[{"start":98.83999999999999,"text":"The elite consensus is that these ideas are also wrong. But to reach that conclusion requires considerable time and effort to sift through the evidence or work through the theory. To make the case without sounding self-satisfied and superior is almost impossible. Nobody likes a smart-arse; populists loathe them."}],[{"start":123.78999999999999,"text":"But as Heath argues, this is more than just the difference between simple and complex, or uneducated and educated. It’s about cognitive effort. Is the right thing to do and say straightforward and obvious? Or is it intricate and counter-intuitive?"}],[{"start":142.39,"text":"Consider the euphemism treadmill, in which the most culturally sensitive way to discuss fraught topics of race, sexuality or disability keeps changing. Is it Hispanic or Latino or Latinx these days? What is the difference between deaf and Deaf? There is nothing intuitive about these conversations, and plenty of people who wish to be friendly, inclusive and polite may feel frustrated that it seems to be so difficult to say the right thing."}],[{"start":173.52999999999997,"text":"Nobody wants to be accused of being a bigot just because they couldn’t remember their homework under pressure. The practice of cultural sensitivity, while well-meaning, turns into an opportunity for some to demonstrate cognitive agility and self-control, and a source of resentment for others. It also, infuriatingly, suggests that cognitive sophistication is a form of moral superiority."}],[{"start":199.15999999999997,"text":"This perspective also explains why populist politicians are often described as “honest”, even by people who regard them as habitual liars. A cautious centrist politician such as Keir Starmer or Kamala Harris can seem verbally constipated: they may be telling the truth, but they give the strong impression of not saying what they really think. In contrast, Donald Trump — a man who could be used in a dictionary definition of “disinhibited” — says many things that aren’t true, but nobody doubts that he is saying whatever crosses his mind. The very fact that a politician such as Starmer is careful what he says is what makes many people distrust him; the fact that Donald Trump seems incapable of message discipline makes him seem honest."}],[{"start":252.00999999999996,"text":"Let’s grant that Heath is on to something here. (He is certainly ahead of the curve; his book Enlightenment 2.0 anticipated many of these arguments, and was published in 2014.) What follows?"}],[{"start":265.7,"text":"It’s easy to see that short-form social media provides fertile soil for populism. If the rallying cry of the populist is “this is just common sense, isn’t it?” and the rallying cry of the traditional elites — whether those elites are leftwing, rightwing or centrist — is “I think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that”, there are no prizes for guessing which message will do better on TikTok or X."}],[{"start":293.23,"text":"This also accounts for the apparent affinity between populism and misinformation. I’ve written before about the way that one of the best antidotes to misinformation is cognitive reflection — deliberately stopping and thinking rather than embracing the first idea that comes to mind. Many fake stories are not that hard to spot, but it requires a moment of time and effort to do so."}],[{"start":318.62,"text":"This may explain why so much misinformation seems to favour populist viewpoints. One of the first serious analyses of fake news, published in 2017, found that while Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton received similar vote shares in the 2016 presidential election, false news stories favouring Trump were shared nearly four times as often on Facebook as false news stories favouring Clinton."}],[{"start":346.15,"text":"Why is this? Misinformation and disinformation can support or attack any side of the political spectrum. Consider the AI-generated pictures portraying the fictional spectacle of Donald Trump being chased and then apprehended by police back in March 2023. But if populism appeals to people who like to make quick, intuitive judgments perhaps it is no surprise that it is the pro-populist misinformation that so often seems to gain traction online."}],[{"start":379.09,"text":"The affinity between the populist and the confidence trickster is also easier to see through the frame of cognitive reflection. The populist thrives in an environment where people act on their intuitions; so does the scammer. This doesn’t mean every populist is a con artist, but it does mean that they are likely to package their message in a similar way, and will seek to create the same fast-twitch, low-context information environment."}],[{"start":408.69,"text":"Common sense has its place, and every now and then the elaborate elite consensus is wrong and the simple knee-jerk answer is right. Usually not, though. The question is: is there a way to encourage voters to calm down, slow down and think twice, in an information environment that pushes us all to hurry up and feel? Nothing easy or certain, to be sure. But any solution has to start with getting voters to take a genuine, curious interest in policy. Everyone has the capacity to stop and think, if they want to."}],[{"start":446.49,"text":"Orson Welles put it perfectly when he told a class of film students, “I can think of nothing that an audience won’t understand. The only problem is to interest them. Once they are interested they understand anything in the world.”"}],[{"start":463.39,"text":"Find out about our latest stories first — follow FT Weekend Magazine on X and FT Weekend on Instagram"}],[{"start":476.65999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1763447778_3056.mp3"}

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