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As Andry Rajoelina, Madagascar’s president, fled the country earlier this month, before generals seized control of the island nation, he may not have had time to take in the sight of a flag held aloft by protesters bearing the symbol of a skull-and-crossbones wearing a straw hat. Demonstrators from Generation Z, who have rattled leaders from Nepal and Indonesia to Morocco, Peru and now Madagascar, have rallied under the same image, taken from a Japanese manga featuring a group of misfits fighting a corrupt and oppressive regime.
本月早些时候，在将军接管这个岛国之前，马达加斯加总统安德里•拉乔利纳(Andry Rajoelina)逃离了该国，他或许都来不及看见抗议者举起的一面旗帜——上面是戴着草帽的骷髅与交叉骨。来自Z世代(Generation Z)的示威者——他们从尼泊尔、印尼到摩洛哥、秘鲁，如今又到马达加斯加，已令各地领导人不安——一直在同一图像之下集结。该图像取自一部日本漫画，讲述一群“异类”对抗腐败、压迫政权的故事。
Whether you call them the TikTok generation, Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) or simply student protesters, young people the world over are demanding — and in some cases affecting — political change. Just ask Sheikh Hasina, former prime minister of Bangladesh, who was drummed out of office by student-led protests last year.
无论称他们为TikTok一代、Z世代（出生于1997年至2012年），还是干脆称作学生抗议者，全球各地的年轻人都在要求——并在某些情况下推动——政治变革。问问前孟加拉国总理谢赫•哈西娜(Sheikh Hasina)吧：她去年被学生主导的抗议运动赶下台。
Gen Z protests are particularly significant in countries where the median age is low, as in Madagascar where half the population is below 19. There, protests were ignited by power and water cuts, but, as in other countries, a dearth of jobs and a disgust with elites flaunting their wealth were deeper causes.
在中位年龄较低的国家，Z世代的抗议尤为重要；例如在马达加斯加，人口有一半未满19岁。当地的抗议最初由停电与断水引发，但与其他国家类似，更深层的原因在于就业机会匮乏以及对炫富精英的厌恶。
In Africa, where the median age is 19 and job creation is woeful, young people are an increasingly potent, if unpredictable, force. It was tech-savvy youth in Sudan who helped propel a wave of protests that toppled the 30-year dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Last year, in Kenya, protesters explicitly identifying as Gen Z forced President William Ruto to reverse proposed tax increases and sack his cabinet. And just this month, in Morocco, protesters calling themselves Gen Z 212 (after the dialling code) took to the streets of Rabat, Casablanca and Tangier to demand better prospects and to decry spending on the 2030 World Cup, which Morocco is co-hosting.
在非洲，人口中位数仅19岁，而就业创造极为不足，年轻人正成为一股愈发强大但难以预测的力量。2019年，精通科技的苏丹青年助推了一波抗议浪潮，推翻了奥马尔•巴希尔长达30年的独裁统治。去年，在肯尼亚，明确自称Z世代的抗议者迫使总统威廉•鲁托(William Ruto)撤回拟议的加税并解散内阁。就在本月，在摩洛哥，一群自称“Gen Z 212”（取自国际区号）的抗议者走上拉巴特、卡萨布兰卡和丹吉尔街头，要求改善前景，并抨击对摩洛哥将共同主办的2030年世界杯(World Cup)的开支。
Most Gen Z protests — organised in the social media ether — lack obvious leaders. That is a strength, making them hydra-headed and harder to suppress in countries from Kenya to Iran, where they keep resurfacing despite murderous state repression. But the amorphous nature of Gen Z protests is also a weakness. They often lack the means to convert legitimate anger into coherent policies or alternative political structures, leaving them susceptible to charismatic strongmen offering instant solutions.
大多数Z世代的抗议——在社交媒体的虚拟空间中组织——缺乏明显的领袖。这是它们的优势，使其如同多头蛇般难以被压制；在从肯尼亚到伊朗的国家里，即便面对致命的国家镇压，它们仍不断死灰复燃。但Z世代抗议的无定形特质也是一种弱点：它们往往缺乏将正当的愤怒转化为连贯政策或替代性政治结构的手段，从而容易受到以魅力著称、承诺速成方案的强人所蛊惑。
The cult status of Captain Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso’s self-styled anti-imperialist revolutionary and a master of TikTok, is a case in point. It may not be a stretch to see US President Donald Trump, who was also quick to grasp the political utility of TikTok, as a beneficiary of youth seeking the shattering of politics-as-normal.
布基纳法索(Burkina Faso)自封的反帝革命者、也是TikTok高手的伊布拉欣•特拉奥雷上尉的“偶像”地位，正是明证。或许并不牵强的是，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)——同样迅速领会TikTok在政治上的用途——也可能从渴望打破常态政治的青年中受益。
Gen Z can be a source of political instability. In Sudan, an idealistic civilian movement saw its power snatched by generals who then plunged the country into a vicious civil war. In Madagascar, Rajoelina himself, then a 34-year-old DJ, was swept to power in 2009 in a previous cycle of youth protests only to be pushed out of office by the next generation and a few generals. Youth protests are also easy prey for disinformation campaigns that can twist legitimate grievances to nefarious ends, including support for Russian mercenaries or homegrown coups.
Z世代可能成为政治不稳定的来源。在苏丹，一个理想主义的平民运动被将军夺权，国家随后被拖入残酷内战。在马达加斯加，拉乔利纳本人——当时34岁的DJ——在2009年上一轮青年抗议中被推上台，随后又被下一代和几位将军赶下台。青年抗议也容易成为虚假信息运动的猎物，后者会把正当的不满扭曲为险恶目的，包括为俄罗斯雇佣兵或本土政变张目。
Still, Gen Z protesters can be a force for good, putting entrenched elites on notice that politics is a social contract, not a licence to loot. Many leaders will calculate that their best chance of survival is to crush protests. But they should be aware that youth movements will keep coming back. A better way of surviving is to create an environment conducive to jobs, services and security. Those leaders that cannot provide such basics can expect to see a skull-and-crossbones flag on a street near them soon.
尽管如此，Z世代的抗议者依然可能成为一股向善的力量，提醒根深蒂固的精英们：政治是一种社会契约，而不是劫掠的许可。许多领导人会认为，压制抗议是他们自保的最佳途径。但他们应当明白，青年运动会一次次卷土重来。更好的生存之道，是营造有利于就业、公共服务和安全的环境。无法提供这些基本保障的领导人，很可能很快就会在附近街头看到一面骷髅旗。