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Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has argued that the huge surge of investment in artificial intelligence is fuelling a ‘good’ kind of bubble, delivering lasting benefits for society even if share prices collapse as dramatically as his ecommerce company’s did 25 years ago.
亚马逊(Amazon)创始人杰夫•贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)表示，当前对人工智能的巨额投资正推动一种“良性”的泡沫，即便股价像25年前他的电商公司那样大幅下挫，也将为社会带来持久的益处。
“This is kind of an industrial bubble as opposed to financial bubbles,” Bezos said at a tech conference in Turin on Friday, drawing parallels with the dotcom-era investment in fibre-optic cable that outlasted many of the companies who deployed it and the “life-saving drugs” that emerged from the 1990s biotech boom and bust.
贝佐斯周五在都灵的一场科技会议上表示：“这更像是一种产业泡沫，而不是金融泡沫。”他将其与互联网泡沫时期对光纤电缆的投资相提并论——那些电缆比许多部署它的公司存续得更久——以及在1990年代生物科技兴衰之后涌现的“拯救生命的药物”。
“The banking bubble, the crisis in the banking system, that’s just bad, that’s like 2008. Those bubbles society wants to avoid,” he said.
“银行业泡沫、银行体系的危机——那就是坏事，就像2008年一样。那种泡沫是社会想要避免的。”他表示。
“The ones that are industrial are not nearly as bad, they can even be good. Because when the dust settles and you see who are the winners — society benefits from those inventions,” he continued. “That’s what is going to happen here too. This is real. The benefits to society from AI are going to be gigantic.”
他接着说：“那些偏工业化的情况并没有那么糟，甚至可能是好事。因为当尘埃落定、赢家浮出水面时——社会会从这些发明中受益。这里也会如此。这是真实的。AI 给社会带来的益处将是巨大的。”
In a rare public appearance, Bezos — who is now Amazon’s executive chair after stepping down as chief executive in 2021 — was interviewed on stage at Italian Tech Week by John Elkann, the billionaire scion of Italy’s Agnelli dynasty and chair of automakers Stellantis and Ferrari.
在一次罕见的公开露面中，贝佐斯——在2021年卸任首席执行官后现任亚马逊执行董事长——在意大利科技周(Italian Tech Week)上接受了约翰•埃尔坎(John Elkann)的台上采访。埃尔坎是意大利阿涅利(Agnelli)家族的亿万富翁后裔，兼任汽车制造商斯泰兰蒂斯(Stellantis)和法拉利(Ferrari)公司的董事长。
The wide-ranging conversation included a prediction by Bezos, who is also the founder of rocket company Blue Origin, that millions of people will be living in space “in the next couple of decades”.
在这场广泛的对话中，贝佐斯（同时也是火箭公司蓝色起源(Blue Origin)的创始人）预测，“在未来二十来年”，将有数百万人在太空中生活。
“They’ll mostly be living there because they want to,” he added, because robots will be more capable and cost effective than working in space. Vast AI data centres, powered by the sun, will also be built in space, he predicted.
他补充道：“他们大多会出于自愿住在那里”，因为在太空作业方面，机器人将更强大、更具成本效益。他还预测，将在太空建造由太阳能驱动的巨型AI数据中心。
“There has never been a better time to be excited about the future,” Bezos declared. “We are gifted to live in a moment in time where there are multiple golden ages going on.”
“从未有比现在更值得为未来感到兴奋的时刻了，”贝佐斯宣称，“我们有幸生活在一个多个‘黄金时代’同时上演的时代。”
Asked by Elkann about parallels between the dotcom boom and the current AI fervour, Bezos recalled employees’ nervousness and investors’ distress as Amazon’s share price fell from $113 to $6 in a “very short period of time” in 2000. But despite the furore, he argued, Amazon’s stock price became “disconnected from the fundamentals” of his business, which remained strong through that period.
埃尔坎问及互联网泡沫与当下AI热潮之间的相似之处时，贝佐斯回忆说，2000年“在非常短的时间内”，亚马逊股价从113美元跌到6美元，员工感到紧张，投资者也备受打击。但他表示，尽管当时喧嚣不断，亚马逊的股价与其业务基本面“脱节”，而公司的基本面在那段时期一直保持稳健。
“When people get very excited as they are today about AI for example, every experiment gets funded, every company gets funded,” he said.
他说：“比如像今天这样，人们对AI异常兴奋时，所有实验都能拿到资金，所有公司也都能拿到资金。”
“Investors have a hard time in the middle of this excitement distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas. That’s also probably happening today. But it doesn’t mean that anything that’s happening isn’t real. AI is real, it is going to change every industry.”
“在这股热潮中，投资者很难分辨哪些是好点子、哪些是坏点子。今天大概也是如此。但这并不意味着正在发生的一切不是真的。AI 是真实存在的，它将改变每一个行业。”
He added: “We don’t know how long it will take exactly but that is very real.”
他补充道：“我们并不确切知道这需要多长时间，但这非常真实。”
Earlier at the event, Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon had warned that a lot of capital being invested in artificial intelligence will “turn out not to deliver returns”, although he said he was still unclear whether the tech market was in a bubble.
在活动较早时段，高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席执行官苏德巍(David Solomon)警告说，大量投入到人工智能的资本“最终可能无法带来回报”，但他表示自己仍不确定科技市场是否处于泡沫之中。
When the current cycle ends, “there will be a lot of capital that was deployed that didn’t deliver returns. It’s not different this time. We just don’t know how that will play out,” he said.
他表示：“当本轮周期结束时，会有大量投入的资本没有带来回报。这次也不例外。只是我们尚不清楚结果会如何演变。”
Solomon told the audience in Turin that AI’s ability to boost productivity was “very exciting”, predicting that the “business of work will be transformed by AI globally”.
苏德巍在都灵向观众表示，AI 提升生产力的能力“非常令人兴奋”，并预测“全球范围内的工作形态将被 AI 改变”。
But the chief executive of the most prestigious US investment bank admitted he was “not smart enough to know” if investors’ excitement over AI had turned into a bubble.
但这家最负盛名的美国投行的首席执行官承认，他“还不够聪明，无法判断”投资者对AI的热情是否已演变成泡沫。
“If you were having this conversation in 1998 you would have been asking the same question but the [market] would run for another three years,” he said.
他说：“如果你在1998年进行这番对话，你会问同样的问题，但[市场]还会再涨三年。”
“We are at the beginning of the movie not the end of the movie,” he added. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12-24 months we see a drawdown in equity markets but that shouldn’t be surprising given the run we’ve had.”
他补充道：“我们现在才刚开场，不是电影的结尾。未来12到24个月里，股市出现回撤我一点也不会惊讶，考虑到此前的涨势，这并不意外。”