How good were Klopp’s Liverpool?

{"text":[[{"start":9.02,"text":"It can be hard to assess how good Jürgen Klopp is as a manager, because his outsized charisma gets in the way. "},{"start":15.099,"text":"At every club he coached, he was adored even when losing. "},{"start":18.429000000000002,"text":"He always essentially had to sack himself, because nobody at the club would do it for him. "}],[{"start":23.96,"text":"After he resigned at Mainz in 2008, having missed out on promotion from Germany’s second division, 20,000 people gathered in the town’s Gutenbergplatz to see him off. "},{"start":33.127,"text":"When he left Borussia Dortmund in 2015 after a mediocre final season, the famed South Stand “cheered him for minutes on end, with the team lining up behind him with solemn respect”, writes his biographer Elmar Neveling. "},{"start":44.857,"text":"Klopp leaves Liverpool similarly beloved. "},{"start":47.399,"text":"“Because nobody will sack me, I have to make this decision by myself,” he said in the video announcing his resignation in January. "}],[{"start":55.43,"text":"Detractors charge that the Klopp effect is mostly hype. "},{"start":58.784,"text":"They note that in nine years at Liverpool he won just one league title (the same English haul as the rather less esteemed Claudio Ranieri) and one Champions League (the same as Roberto Di Matteo, who fell out of demand as a manager years ago). "}],[{"start":72.6,"text":"Yet closer study of the data reveals that Klopp is an exceptional manager. "},{"start":76.87899999999999,"text":"He hasn’t fooled us with charisma. "},{"start":78.922,"text":"Statistics compiled by the FT’s data journalist John Burn-Murdoch show that Klopp’s Liverpool are the second-best team in England this century. "},{"start":86.189,"text":"Their problem is that they played at the same time as the best team: Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":92.61999999999999,"text":"John analysed the Premier League from the 2000-01 season, the period for which detailed statistics exist. "},{"start":99.09899999999999,"text":"He compared every team at its peak (using the best three-season period, so as not to emphasise outlier seasons) for a range of different statistics, notably points, goals scored, goal difference, shots and “expected goals”. "},{"start":111.892,"text":"The only team that beat Klopp’s Liverpool in any of these categories were Guardiola’s City. "}],[{"start":117.44,"text":"In short, the reason Klopp won just that one league title, in 2020, was that he was competing against the best team in Premier League history (and probably one of the best of all time, anywhere). "},{"start":128.29399999999998,"text":"This problem was starkest in the 2018-19 season when Liverpool notched up 97 points, easily enough to win the title in almost any other season. "},{"start":136.699,"text":"City got 98. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":138.69,"text":"The four highest points tallies in the Premier League this century were all posted by one of these two teams. "},{"start":144.282,"text":"Their most dominant recent predecessors, Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United, only just squeeze inside the top ten for points. "},{"start":151.299,"text":"Klopp’s Liverpool and Guardiola’s City look better, across the range of metrics, than peak Ferguson’s United, peak Arsène Wenger’s Arsenal or peak anybody’s Chelsea. "}],[{"start":161.42,"text":"The best indicator of a club’s success is its wage bill. "},{"start":164.94899999999998,"text":"The more it pays its players, the higher it tends to finish in the league. "},{"start":168.79199999999997,"text":"This suggests that player quality — as reflected by salaries — explains most of football. "},{"start":174.20899999999997,"text":"Yet a few managers do add value. "},{"start":176.402,"text":"John’s data show that Klopp achieved 11.7 points more per season than Liverpool’s wage bill would have predicted, marginally less than Guardiola at City. "},{"start":184.844,"text":"There is so much more to Klopp than just his (admittedly unmatched) public relations. "}],[{"start":190.95,"text":"One current manager, Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta, overachieved even more than Guardiola and Klopp. "},{"start":196.792,"text":"But Arteta hasn’t (yet) won titles, because Arsenal’s wage bill isn’t high enough. "},{"start":202.09699999999998,"text":"It’s a tribute to his Arsenal that they have kept up with the century’s two best teams, and could still pip City to this season’s title. "},{"start":208.63899999999998,"text":"We are living in English football’s golden age of excellence. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

Average points per season above/below what we would expect based on wage bill

manager	Points +/-
Mikel Arteta	+15.1
Pep Guardiola	+12.7
Jurgen Klopp	+11.7
Mauricio Pochettino	+10.8
Alex Ferguson	+10.5
Antonio Conte	+10.5
Roberto De Zerbi	+9.8
Arsène Wenger	+6.4
Martin Jol	+6.3
Harry Redknapp	+5.1
Manuel Pellegrini	+4.8
José Mourinho	+3.5
Erik Ten Hag	-2.1
Rafael Benitez	-2.3
Graham Potter	-2.7
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer	-5.2
Roberto Mancini	-7.1
Louis van Gaal	-8.5
Source: FT analysis of data from Joseph Buchdahl, Understat and clubs’ accounts

"}],[{"start":212.7,"text":"Another sign of Klopp’s quality: his teams reached four Champions League finals in the decade from 2013, the first with Dortmund, the last three with Liverpool. "},{"start":221.95399999999998,"text":"They won only one of them, but then there is a high degree of randomness to the results of standalone matches. "},{"start":227.309,"text":"Imagine if the referee in the 2018 final had sent off Real Madrid’s Sergio Ramos for his early inflictions of serious damage on Liverpool’s Loris Karius and Mo Salah. "},{"start":236.539,"text":"With a bit more luck, Klopp’s success at Liverpool could have been generational. "}],[{"start":241.13,"text":"What success he had was a collective achievement. "},{"start":243.99699999999999,"text":"He was modest enough to delegate major responsibilities to his staffers, and he dovetailed well with the spending of owners Fenway Sports Group and the data-driven Michael Edwards/Ian Graham recruitment team. "}],[{"start":255.56,"text":"It’s a tribute to Klopp that Liverpool seem to have chosen as his successor the Dutchman Arne Slot, who aims to perpetuate Kloppian high-energy pressing football, albeit minus Klopp’s charisma. "},{"start":265.739,"text":"The model here dates back 50 years: this week in May 1974, Liverpool’s charismatic manager Bill Shankly coached his last game, victory over Newcastle in the FA Cup final. "},{"start":276.407,"text":"He was succeeded by his charisma-free assistant Bob Paisley — who then outdid Shankly for trophies, winning three European Cups. "},{"start":283.412,"text":"Yet Shankly remains unforgotten, as Klopp will. "}],[{"start":286.96,"text":"Find out about our latest stories first — follow FTWeekend on Instagram and X, and subscribe to our podcast Life and Art wherever you listen "}],[{"start":294.77,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/154244-1715410743.mp3"}