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Happiness, according to some psychologists, is a product of reality exceeding one’s expectations. If so, 2023 has been quite a cheery year — at least for economists. Citi’s Global Economic Surprise Index shows that this year’s projections have been consistently beaten by the actual data. The economic trends that have underpinned this reality also offer plenty of reasons to be optimistic for 2024.
根据一些心理学家的说法，幸福是现实超出一个人的期望的产物。如果是这样，2023年对经济学家来说是一个相当愉快的年份。花旗(Citi)的全球经济惊喜指数显示，今年的预测一直被实际数据超越。支撑这一现实的经济趋势也为2024年提供了许多乐观的理由。
First, the international economy has displayed remarkable resilience. Since 2020 it has endured a pandemic, war in Europe and supply chain chaos — which together triggered the highest inflation and most aggressive interest rate-raising cycle in decades. Yet economies have adapted better than expected, and that continued in 2023. In the third quarter the world’s gross domestic product was more than 9 per cent larger than pre-pandemic levels, according to Fitch Ratings’ global aggregate. Businesses rewired their logistics, Europe weaned itself further off Russian gas, and higher rates did not lead to a spike in unemployment. Such durability provides a strong foundation for the new year.
首先，国际经济表现出了令人瞩目的韧性。自2020年以来，国际经济经历了一场大流行病、欧洲战争和供应链混乱，这些因素共同引发了几十年来最高的通货膨胀和最激进的加息周期。然而，经济表现比预期更好，并且在2023年继续保持。根据惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)的全球总计，第三季度世界国内生产总值比疫情前水平增长了9%以上。企业重新调整了物流，欧洲进一步减少了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，而较高的利率并没有导致失业率飙升。这种持久性为新的一年提供了坚实的基础。
Second, the scourge of inflation is fading rapidly. Global price growth ended last year at 8.9 per cent, and is forecast to drop to 5.1 per cent by the end of 2024. Food price inflation — from wheat to cooking oils — has plummeted, and the surge in energy prices is unwinding. The concatenation of pandemic-era supply chain shocks has also eased. Services inflation remains sticky, but that is down to sturdy job markets and rapid wage growth.
其次，通货膨胀的威胁正在迅速减弱。全球物价增长在去年以8.9%的速度结束，预计到2024年底将降至5.1%。从小麦到食用油的食品价格通胀已经大幅下降，能源价格的上涨也在逐渐回落。大流行时期供应链冲击的连锁反应也已经减轻。服务业通胀仍然较高，但这归因于就业市场的稳定和工资的快速增长。
Third, fears of a “table mountain”-type monetary policy cycle — where interest rates would stay at their peak for longer — are already waning. The major central banks may now cut rates earlier in 2024 than anticipated. That would be a relief for many households and businesses. And although three regional US banks and Credit Suisse foundered in March, the fallout from higher rates has been contained. In fact, this rate cycle has usefully exposed weaknesses, from zombie businesses to poorly capitalised banks.
第三，对于“台山”式货币政策周期的担忧已经在减弱。主要中央银行可能会在2024年较早降息，这将对许多家庭和企业来说是一种解脱。尽管三家美国地区银行和瑞信(Credit Suisse)在3月份遭遇困境，但高利率带来的影响已经得到控制。事实上，本轮利率周期已经有效地暴露了从僵尸企业到资本不足银行的弱点。
Financial markets have boomed. Wall Street’s leading indices neared or surpassed record highs this month. Even bonds ended the year strongly. And, the chance of a soft landing for the US economy in 2024 — where the Fed gets inflation under control without causing a recession — has risen.
金融市场繁荣。华尔街的主要指数在本月接近或超过历史最高点。即使债券也在年底表现强劲。此外，美国经济在2024年实现软着陆的可能性也在上升，届时美联储将在不引发经济衰退的情况下控制住通胀。
Not all economies are expected to perform well. Economic activity has sagged in Britain and Germany. China’s post-pandemic recovery has also disappointed. But others are showing promise. India, Mexico and Vietnam are benefiting from shifting trade patterns, and investors are keen to boost their exposures to them next year. Prudent economic management also made a comeback in places. Greece’s government debt returned to investment grade status after a decade-long hiatus. In Turkey and Argentina some unorthodox approaches were reined in too. Central banks across many developing countries were also on the front foot in keeping inflation under control.
并非所有经济体都有望表现良好。英国和德国的经济活动已经下滑。中国的疫后复苏也令人失望。但其他一些国家表现出了希望。印度、墨西哥和越南正在受益于贸易模式的转变，投资者热衷于明年增加对它们的投资。一些地方也出现了审慎的经济管理回归。希腊的政府债务在经历了十年的间断后重新获得了投资级别的地位。土耳其和阿根廷也收敛了一些非正统的做法。许多发展中国家的央行也积极采取措施控制通胀。
Finally, it has been anything but the sober year for tech some had expected. ChatGPT became the fastest-growing app of all time, and the buzz over generative AI helped to propel the stock market. The adoption of generative AI by businesses in 2024 could help support productivity growth, which has shown signs of lift-off in the US this year. Other innovations this year also hold promise. The regulatory approval of weight-loss drugs — such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy — could help to lower healthcare burdens. And, Toyota’s progress on solid-state batteries may be a game-changer for the electric vehicle industry.
最后，对于一些人所期望的科技行业来说，这一年绝非平静之年。ChatGPT成为有史以来增长最快的应用程序，而对生成式人工智能的热议则推动了股市。2024年企业对生成式人工智能的采用可能有助于支持生产力增长，而今年美国已经显示出了起飞的迹象。今年的其他创新也有希望。例如，减肥药物（如诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)的威戈维）的监管批准可能有助于减轻医疗负担。此外，丰田汽车(Toyota)在固态电池方面的进展可能会成为电动汽车行业的一个重大转变。
A bit of perspective is no excuse for complacency. The global economy faces several battles in 2024, from pivotal elections to mounting sovereign debt. But, after this year’s resilient showing, there is every chance that the reality next year will also be better than expected.
放眼未来并不是自满的借口。2024 年，全球经济将面临几场战役，从关键的大选到不断增加的主权债务。但是，经过今年的顽强表现，明年的实际情况也完全有可能好于预期。