{"caption":"https://next-media-api.ft.com/captions/17526794629080.vtt","imageUrl":"https://next-video-editor-images.s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/a79fca9e-cad0-4c1b-98b6-858ba2f6d508","video":"https://next-media-api.ft.com/renditions/17527627341180/1280x720.mp4","text":[[{"start":2.36,"end":6.97,"text":"Austerity was the truth, the belief, for many years. ","translation":"紧缩政策曾是多年来的真理与信条"}],[{"start":6.97,"end":8.65,"text":"Germany has the wrong business model. ","translation":"德国的商业模式存在问题"}],[{"start":8.65,"end":10.936,"text":"The infrastructure of the country is crumbling. ","translation":"该国的基础设施正逐渐崩溃"}],[{"start":15.4,"end":17.525,"text":"Bits and pieces from the roof started falling down. ","translation":"屋顶的碎片开始掉落"}],[{"start":17.525,"end":19.95,"text":"And it was deemed unsafe for the kids to learn here. ","translation":"这里被认为不适合孩子们学习"}],[{"start":19.95,"end":22.13,"text":"So many schools need to be renovated ","translation":"很多学校都急需翻修"},{"start":24.515,"end":26.01,"text":"Every day the trains are delayed. ","translation":"火车每天都晚点"}],[{"start":26.01,"end":31.835,"text":"And when I make it on time, I won the lotto. ","translation":"而当我准时到达时，我就像中了彩票一样幸运"}],[{"start":31.835,"end":32.85,"text":"It's not just shame. ","translation":"这不仅仅是羞耻"}],[{"start":32.85,"end":34.2,"text":"It's just like it's annoying. ","translation":"这只是令人烦恼"}],[{"start":34.2,"end":37.19,"text":"And you want to have a country that works. ","translation":"你希望有一个运转良好的国家"}],[{"start":37.19,"end":41.842,"text":"The debt brake reform is a very seismic shift. ","translation":"债务刹车改革是一次非常重大的转变"}],[{"start":41.842,"end":48.482,"text":"500bn euros to modernise the country's ageing infrastructure. ","translation":"5000亿欧元用于现代化该国老化的基础设施"}],[{"start":48.482,"end":50.69,"text":"There are no debt brake constraints on defence at all ","translation":"国防开支已经"},{"start":50.69,"end":51.68,"text":"anymore. ","translation":"完全不受债务刹车的限制"}],[{"start":51.68,"end":55.04,"text":"This push into defence, some economists see that as a big ","translation":"一些经济学家认为，进军国防领域"},{"start":55.04,"end":57.08,"text":"opportunity for carmakers. ","translation":"对汽车制造商来说是一个巨大的机遇"}],[{"start":57.08,"end":60.79,"text":"Making Germany's economy strong in the way that they are now ","translation":"按照现在的设想让德国经济强大起来"},{"start":60.79,"end":64.15,"text":"imagining, making Germany's defence strong in the way that ","translation":"按照现在的规划让德国国防强大起来"},{"start":64.15,"end":67.46,"text":"they are now planning, is a necessary condition, ","translation":"这不仅是"},{"start":67.46,"end":70.01,"text":"not just for the revitalisation of Germany, ","translation":"德国复兴的必要条件"},{"start":70.01,"end":72.975,"text":"but for the revitalisation of Europe. ","translation":"也是欧洲复兴的必要条件"}],[{"start":72.975,"end":74.5,"text":"Merz doesn't have a choice. ","translation":"默茨别无选择"}],[{"start":74.5,"end":75.795,"text":"He has to succeed. ","translation":"他必须成功"}],[{"start":79.57,"end":82.45,"text":"Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democrats and now ","translation":"基民盟领袖、现任总理弗里德里希•默茨"},{"start":82.45,"end":88.24,"text":"the chancellor, created an ad hoc fund of 500bn euros over 12 ","translation":"设立了一项为期12年、总额5000亿欧元的专项基金"},{"start":88.24,"end":92.47,"text":"years to modernise and renovate the country's ageing ","translation":"用于对全国老化的基础设施进行现代化改造和翻新"},{"start":92.47,"end":95.36500000000001,"text":"infrastructure - roads, hospitals, schools. ","translation":"包括道路、医院和学校"}],[{"start":95.36500000000001,"end":98.71000000000001,"text":"The second serious change is that government has now ","translation":"第二个重大变化是，政府现在"},{"start":98.71000000000001,"end":103.49000000000001,"text":"the legal leeway to spend as much as it wants on defence. ","translation":"在法律上可以无限制地增加国防开支"}],[{"start":103.49000000000001,"end":105.97,"text":"And there are no debt brake constraints on defence at all ","translation":"而且国防开支现在完全不受债务刹车的限制了"},{"start":105.97,"end":106.58,"text":"anymore. ","translation":"现在也是如此"}],[{"start":123.155,"end":125.8,"text":"The basic idea is to invest more, ","translation":"核心思路是加大投资力度"},{"start":125.8,"end":128.02,"text":"to launch more public investment, ","translation":"推动更多公共投资"},{"start":128.02,"end":131.76,"text":"because the public investment at this point in Germany ","translation":"因为目前德国的公共投资"},{"start":131.76,"end":133,"text":"is undersupply. ","translation":"明显不足"}],[{"start":133,"end":135.27,"text":"And that's why the government decided ","translation":"因此，政府决定"},{"start":135.27,"end":136.84,"text":"to change the constitution. ","translation":"对宪法进行修改"}],[{"start":136.84,"end":140.29,"text":"The hope is that with the relaxation of the debt brake, ","translation":"人们希望，随着债务刹车的放宽"},{"start":140.29,"end":143.52,"text":"Germany will be able to launch more infrastructure spending, ","translation":"德国能够加大基础设施投资"},{"start":143.52,"end":145.933,"text":"and therefore, stimulate the economy. ","translation":"从而带动经济增长"}],[{"start":145.933,"end":147.6,"text":"It's a big gamble in the sense that it's ","translation":"这可以说是一场巨大的赌博"},{"start":147.6,"end":148.86,"text":"a massive amount of money. ","translation":"因为投入的资金非常庞大"}],[{"start":152.59,"end":155.56,"text":"To try and understand what the debt brake is, ","translation":"要想理解债务刹车"},{"start":155.56,"end":159.25,"text":"one has to go back into the ideology of postwar Germany. ","translation":"就必须回到战后德国的意识形态中去"}],[{"start":159.25,"end":163.07999999999998,"text":"Economic policies were designed to achieve stability, which ","translation":"经济政策的制定是为了实现稳定"},{"start":163.07999999999998,"end":167.13,"text":"is a thing that they didn't have in the interwar period, ","translation":"因为在战间期他们缺乏这种稳定"},{"start":167.13,"end":169.3,"text":"and in their view, led to Hitler. ","translation":"而在他们看来，这正是导致希特勒上台的原因"}],[{"start":169.3,"end":172.95,"text":"This explains the monetary stability fetish, ","translation":"这也说明了德国对货币稳定的极度重视"},{"start":172.95,"end":176.25,"text":"creation of the Bundesbank as an independent central bank. ","translation":"以及设立独立的联邦银行"}],[{"start":176.25,"end":180.69,"text":"But they also are very concerned that bad fiscal policy, ","translation":"但他们同样非常担心，糟糕的财政政策"},{"start":180.69,"end":184.04,"text":"excessive debts, and deficits will also ","translation":"过高的债务和赤字会"},{"start":184.04,"end":187.962,"text":"destabilise the economy and possibly lead to inflation. ","translation":"破坏经济稳定，甚至可能引发通货膨胀"}],[{"start":187.962,"end":191.367,"text":"The debt brake was established in 2009. ","translation":"债务刹车机制于2009年建立"}],[{"start":191.367,"end":193.2,"text":"We're in the middle of the financial crisis. ","translation":"当时正值金融危机期间"}],[{"start":193.2,"end":196.8,"text":"Germany has to spend a lot of money to counter the crisis. ","translation":"德国不得不花费大量资金来应对危机"}],[{"start":196.8,"end":199.085,"text":"They want to finally put a lid on debt and say, ","translation":"他们想要最终遏制债务，却说这次"},{"start":199.085,"end":201.21,"text":"now we're, for once, going to take on lots of debt. ","translation":"我们要大举举债"}],[{"start":201.21,"end":202.5,"text":"But we're never going to do it again. ","translation":"但我们绝不会再这样做"}],[{"start":202.5,"end":204.385,"text":"So we put this rule into the constitution. ","translation":"因此，我们把这条规则写入了宪法"}],[{"start":204.385,"end":210.32,"text":"The debt brake capped borrowing to 0.35 per cent of GDP ","translation":"债务刹车规定"},{"start":210.32,"end":210.99,"text":"every year. ","translation":"每年借款不得超过GDP的0.35%"}],[{"start":210.99,"end":214.9,"text":"The federal states had no ability to take on any debt. ","translation":"联邦州没有能力承担任何债务"}],[{"start":214.9,"end":219.98,"text":"Everything got back into this very conservative mindset ","translation":"一切又回到了极度保守的思维模式"},{"start":219.98,"end":223.625,"text":"of absolute fiscal and monetary stability. ","translation":"追求财政和货币绝对稳定"}],[{"start":223.625,"end":226.02,"text":"Merz, in quite an audacious step, ","translation":"默茨采取了非常大胆的行动"},{"start":226.02,"end":228.12,"text":"decided to change the constitution, ","translation":"决定修改宪法"},{"start":228.12,"end":230.32999999999998,"text":"using the old parliament between the election ","translation":"在选举和新议会成立之间"},{"start":230.32999999999998,"end":232.47,"text":"and the formation of the new one. ","translation":"利用旧议会"}],[{"start":232.47,"end":235.39,"text":"There was a kind of a time window of several weeks. ","translation":"这期间存在一个为期数周的窗口期"}],[{"start":235.39,"end":239.285,"text":"And they rushed the change of the constitution through. ","translation":"他们迅速推动了宪法修改进程"}],[{"start":239.285,"end":242.07,"text":"In Germany, you need a two-thirds majority ","translation":"在德国，需要三分之二多数通过"},{"start":242.07,"end":243.76,"text":"to change the constitution. ","translation":"才可以修改宪法"}],[{"start":243.76,"end":246.7,"text":"And we needed to reform our debt brake. ","translation":"而我们需要改革债务刹车机制"}],[{"start":246.7,"end":251.13,"text":"We saw the difficulties our country is in with an almost ","translation":"我们看到了国家所面临的困境"},{"start":251.13,"end":252.64,"text":"rotten infrastructure. ","translation":"基础设施几乎已经破败不堪"}],[{"start":252.64,"end":255.75,"text":"And we wanted to be part of solving that problem ","translation":"我们希望参与解决这个问题"},{"start":255.75,"end":258.739,"text":"and making it possible to pass that bill. ","translation":"推动法案的通过"}],[{"start":258.739,"end":262.8,"text":"Germany has woken up to the fact that it has significant defence ","translation":"德国已经意识到自己肩负着重要的国防责任和压力"},{"start":262.8,"end":267.21,"text":"obligations and burdens, because Russia is clearly seen ","translation":"因为俄罗斯如今被明确视为"},{"start":267.21,"end":267.88,"text":"as a threat. ","translation":"威胁"}],[{"start":267.88,"end":271.06,"text":"And the United States is no longer seen as a reliable ally. ","translation":"而美国不再被视为可靠的盟友"}],[{"start":271.06,"end":273.83,"text":"The infrastructure of the country is crumbling. ","translation":"国家的基础设施正在崩溃"}],[{"start":273.83,"end":275.59000000000003,"text":"Germany has the wrong business model. ","translation":"德国的商业模式是错误的"}],[{"start":275.59000000000003,"end":278.02,"text":"It is over-reliant on exports. ","translation":"它过于依赖出口"}],[{"start":278.02,"end":281.67,"text":"At a time when globalisation is falling apart, ","translation":"在全球化瓦解的当下"},{"start":281.67,"end":283.33,"text":"nationalism is on the rise. ","translation":"民族主义正在兴起"}],[{"start":283.33,"end":285.01,"text":"Protectionism is on the rise. ","translation":"保护主义也在抬头"}],[{"start":285.01,"end":289.21,"text":"And its core industries, the heavy manufacturing industries, ","translation":"其核心产业——重工业"},{"start":289.21,"end":292.572,"text":"are under attack by Chinese manufacturers. ","translation":"正受到中国制造商的冲击"}],[{"start":292.572,"end":295.05,"text":"Germany bounced back after the pandemic. ","translation":"德国在疫情后实现了经济复苏"}],[{"start":295.05,"end":298.2,"text":"But since this bouncing back in '22, ","translation":"但自2022年经济反弹后"},{"start":298.2,"end":300.685,"text":"the economy has basically been flatlining. ","translation":"整体基本处于停滞状态"}],[{"start":300.685,"end":303.54,"text":"The economy is struggling with decarbonisation, ","translation":"经济在推进脱碳过程中遇到困难"},{"start":303.54,"end":305.81,"text":"making it harder to have electricity ","translation":"这使得以有竞争力的价格"},{"start":305.81,"end":308.1,"text":"at a competitive cost. ","translation":"获得电力变得更加艰难"}],[{"start":308.1,"end":310.76,"text":"And now, the global trade wars are really ","translation":"现在，全球贸易战正在严重"},{"start":310.76,"end":314.72,"text":"impacting the German economy, and especially car manufacturing ","translation":"影响德国经济，尤其是汽车制造业"},{"start":314.72,"end":316.8,"text":"is just not what it was before. ","translation":"已经大不如前了"}],[{"start":316.8,"end":319.99,"text":"And that is really the big driver for a lot of things. ","translation":"这正是许多问题的根本原因"}],[{"start":319.99,"end":321.98,"text":"Germany outsourced its energy supply ","translation":"德国把能源供应交给了俄罗斯"},{"start":321.98,"end":326.04,"text":"to Russia, consumption to China, and security to the US. ","translation":"消费依赖中国，安全则依靠美国"}],[{"start":326.04,"end":329.13,"text":"And all of these three factors have now come under threat. ","translation":"而这三个因素如今均面临威胁"}],[{"start":329.13,"end":332.163,"text":"The German model has failed or has to be reworked. ","translation":"德国模式已失败或必须重新调整"}],[{"start":340.94,"end":343.17,"text":"After the fall of the Berlin Wall, ","translation":"柏林墙倒塌后"},{"start":343.17,"end":346.11,"text":"German defence policy completely changed focus. ","translation":"德国的防务政策彻底转变了方向"}],[{"start":346.11,"end":349.15999999999997,"text":"For many years, the political idea ","translation":"多年来，政治上的想法"},{"start":349.15999999999997,"end":351.04,"text":"was, oh, we don't need the force that is ","translation":"一直是，我们不需要能够"},{"start":351.04,"end":353.36,"text":"able to defend our territory. ","translation":"保卫领土的武装力量"}],[{"start":353.36,"end":355.09000000000003,"text":"We only need a force which kind of ","translation":"我们只需要一支能够执行海外任务的部队"},{"start":355.09000000000003,"end":358.37,"text":"does overseas operations, like in Afghanistan. ","translation":"比如在阿富汗那样"}],[{"start":358.37,"end":360.02,"text":"Conscription was abolished. ","translation":"征兵制已被废除"}],[{"start":360.02,"end":363.175,"text":"The army was really shrunken quite significantly. ","translation":"军队规模确实大幅缩减"}],[{"start":363.175,"end":369.01,"text":"Germany has really relied on the US and Nato for its defence, ","translation":"德国在国防和安全上一直高度依赖美国和北约"},{"start":369.01,"end":374.53,"text":"its security and didn't really think of its army as a real army ","translation":"并没有真正把自己的军队当作一支真正的军队"},{"start":374.53,"end":377.68,"text":"because of its fraught past, history, ","translation":"由于其复杂的历史"},{"start":377.68,"end":383.02,"text":"its central role in the second world war, the Nazi regime. ","translation":"以及二战中的核心地位和纳粹政权的影响"}],[{"start":383.02,"end":386.44,"text":"It really took the Russian and full-scale invasion of Ukraine ","translation":"直到2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰"},{"start":386.44,"end":390.525,"text":"in 2022 to change that political perspective. ","translation":"这种政治立场才发生了改变"}],[{"start":390.525,"end":391.746,"text":"It's an honour to have you. ","translation":"很荣幸和您见面"}],[{"start":391.746,"end":392.246,"text":"Thank you. ","translation":"谢谢"}],[{"start":392.246,"end":395.505,"text":"As you know, the chancellor just won a great election, ","translation":"如你所知，总理刚刚在选举中取得了胜利"},{"start":395.505,"end":397.32,"text":"a very, very strong election. ","translation":"而且这是一场非常辉煌的胜利"}],[{"start":397.32,"end":401.65,"text":"The loss of the US as the pillar of European security ","translation":"美国不再是欧洲安全的支柱"},{"start":401.65,"end":404.45,"text":"demands that Europe responds. ","translation":"欧洲必须作出回应"}],[{"start":404.45,"end":405.77,"text":"Otherwise, it fragments. ","translation":"否则，欧洲将四分五裂"}],[{"start":405.77,"end":408.62,"text":"And then for Germany, that's a catastrophe. ","translation":"这对德国而言将是灾难"}],[{"start":408.62,"end":411.13,"text":"And whenever you think about the history of Germany, ","translation":"每当你思考德国的历史时"},{"start":411.13,"end":413.28,"text":"you have to look at the map. ","translation":"都必须看看地图"}],[{"start":413.28,"end":415.56,"text":"Why did they get involved in all these terrible wars? ","translation":"为何他们卷入所有这些可怕战争"}],[{"start":415.56,"end":417.06,"text":"Because they're right in the middle. ","translation":"因为他们正处于中心位置"}],[{"start":417.06,"end":418.84000000000003,"text":"They're surrounded by neighbours. ","translation":"他们被邻国环绕"}],[{"start":418.84000000000003,"end":420.4,"text":"For the first time in their history, ","translation":"这是他们历史上第一次"},{"start":420.4,"end":422.23,"text":"their neighbours are all friendly. ","translation":"所有邻国都与他们友好相处"}],[{"start":422.23,"end":425.83,"text":"They're bound to them by the EU treaty. ","translation":"他们受欧盟条约的约束"}],[{"start":425.83,"end":427.98,"text":"They have to protect this because it's ","translation":"他们必须保护这个，因为"},{"start":427.98,"end":429.55,"text":"about protecting themselves. ","translation":"这就是在保护自己"}],[{"start":429.55,"end":431.02,"text":"And they're the biggest economy. ","translation":"而且他们是最大的经济体"}],[{"start":431.02,"end":433.06,"text":"So they have to take these actions. ","translation":"因此他们必须采取这些行动"}],[{"start":433.06,"end":434.402,"text":"They have to be a leader. ","translation":"他们必须发挥领导作用"}],[{"start":434.402,"end":436.86,"text":"That requires a lot of spending because Germany didn't have ","translation":"这需要投入大量资金，因为德国几乎没有"},{"start":436.86,"end":440.88,"text":"any helicopters that could fly and any jets that could fly, ","translation":"能飞的直升机和战斗机"},{"start":440.88,"end":442.785,"text":"or very few of them. ","translation":"或者说数量非常少"}],[{"start":442.785,"end":446.5,"text":"Some of the bridges could not sustain tanks. ","translation":"部分桥梁无法承受坦克的重量"}],[{"start":446.5,"end":449.97,"text":"Infrastructure needs to be modernised to sustain this ","translation":"基础设施必须实现现代化"},{"start":449.97,"end":451.565,"text":"defence ramp-up. ","translation":"以支撑国防扩军"}],[{"start":451.565,"end":455.7,"text":"The immediate positive spillover on economic growth from simple ","translation":"单靠国防投资对经济增长的直接正面带动作用"},{"start":455.7,"end":459,"text":"defence investment is relatively limited. ","translation":"其实比较有限"}],[{"start":459,"end":462.39,"text":"This push into defence, some economists see that as a big ","translation":"一些经济学家认为，国防领域的扩张"},{"start":462.39,"end":466.64,"text":"opportunity for carmakers, which are facing this structural ","translation":"为正经历结构性转型的"},{"start":466.64,"end":467.575,"text":"shift. ","translation":"汽车制造商带来了巨大机遇"}],[{"start":467.575,"end":471.05,"text":"Lots of suppliers for the car industry can actually also work ","translation":"很多为汽车行业供货的供应商其实也能为"},{"start":471.05,"end":472.5,"text":"for the defence industry. ","translation":"国防行业服务"}],[{"start":472.5,"end":475.5,"text":"Will it be enough to bring about the economic miracle? ","translation":"这是否足以带来经济奇迹"}],[{"start":475.5,"end":476.8,"text":"I'm not convinced. ","translation":"我并不确定"}],[{"start":476.8,"end":479.28,"text":"Defence spending is not always investment. ","translation":"国防支出并不总是投资"}],[{"start":479.28,"end":483.09,"text":"And it goes often into consumption or into salaries. ","translation":"它往往用于消费或薪资支出"}],[{"start":483.09,"end":487.79,"text":"So there's a balance to be struck between investment ","translation":"因此，国防投资需要取得平衡"},{"start":487.79,"end":491.09,"text":"purposes of defence that stimulates the economy ","translation":"既要兼顾对经济的拉动作用"},{"start":491.09,"end":494.855,"text":"and the running of the army. ","translation":"也要保障军队的正常运作"}],[{"start":494.855,"end":497.94,"text":"If defence spending doesn't occur, Germany will remain weak. ","translation":"如果国防开支不足，德国将保持弱势"}],[{"start":497.94,"end":500.79,"text":"The Americans will look at this, and they will say, ","translation":"美国人会看到这一点，然后说"},{"start":500.79,"end":503.13,"text":"you're not committing anything to Nato. ","translation":"你们并没有对北约作出任何承诺"}],[{"start":503.13,"end":504.98,"text":"We're going to really wash our hands ","translation":"我们会彻底与你们断绝关系"},{"start":504.98,"end":508.59,"text":"of you and of all your allies, and that means of Nato. ","translation":"以及与你们所有的盟友，包括北约"}],[{"start":508.59,"end":511.11,"text":"And that will be terrible for Germany. ","translation":"这对德国将极为不利"}],[{"start":511.11,"end":513.929,"text":"The Russians will look at them and say Europe is weak. ","translation":"俄罗斯人会观察到这一点，并说欧洲已变得脆弱"}],[{"start":513.929,"end":515.88,"text":"It's not prepared to defend itself. ","translation":"它不愿自我防御"}],[{"start":515.88,"end":518.159,"text":"It's not prepared to build up its economy. ","translation":"它不愿发展经济"}],[{"start":518.159,"end":520.65,"text":"We can poke more and more here. ","translation":"我们可以在此不断施压"}],[{"start":520.65,"end":522.11,"text":"Potentially, this could even lead ","translation":"这甚至有可能导致"},{"start":522.11,"end":525.093,"text":"to a situation in which the EU starts breaking up ","translation":"欧盟走向分裂，因为各国可能会认为"},{"start":525.093,"end":527.26,"text":"because countries will start saying, well, actually, ","translation":"与俄罗斯达成协议"},{"start":527.26,"end":530.51,"text":"it would make better sense for us to do a deal with Russia. ","translation":"对自己更有利"}],[{"start":530.51,"end":534.28,"text":"They have to find a way of building up the defence capacity ","translation":"他们需要想办法提升国家的防御能力"},{"start":534.28,"end":536.57,"text":"of the country, so they have to spend money. ","translation":"所以必须投入资金"}],[{"start":536.57,"end":538.04,"text":"There's no alternative. ","translation":"别无选择"}],[{"start":541.78,"end":546.58,"text":"The Merkel years of government were years of underinvestment ","translation":"默克尔执政期间，我们长期投资不足"},{"start":546.58,"end":548.3,"text":"in our infrastructure. ","translation":"在我们的基础设施方面尤其如此"}],[{"start":548.3,"end":551.29,"text":"That has led to our substance of our country ","translation":"这导致我国的国力"},{"start":551.29,"end":553.275,"text":"deteriorating year by year. ","translation":"一年比一年衰弱"}],[{"start":556.652,"end":560.15,"text":"Germany's train system is very dysfunctional. ","translation":"德国的铁路系统非常紊乱"}],[{"start":560.15,"end":562.88,"text":"Trains do not run on time, most of the time. ","translation":"火车很少准时运行"}],[{"start":562.88,"end":564.83,"text":"And it's really due to a lack of investment, ","translation":"这主要是因为投资不足"},{"start":564.83,"end":566.957,"text":"also a lack of personnel. ","translation":"人员也不足"}],[{"start":566.957,"end":569.62,"text":"Demand for trains and for train travel ","translation":"火车和铁路出行的需求"},{"start":569.62,"end":574.15,"text":"has risen due to climate change considerations and people ","translation":"由于气候变化的考虑以及人们"},{"start":574.15,"end":577.66,"text":"deliberately not wanting to use domestic flights. ","translation":"有意减少乘坐国内航班而上升"}],[{"start":577.66,"end":580.18,"text":"If it's so unreliable, people go back ","translation":"如果火车这么不靠谱，人们就会选择开车"},{"start":580.18,"end":582.94,"text":"to driving or using the plane. ","translation":"或者坐飞机"}],[{"start":582.94,"end":586.13,"text":"So people are very frustrated about that, obviously. ","translation":"因此，人们对此感到非常沮丧，这是显而易见的"}],[{"start":586.13,"end":588.47,"text":"My name is Laura. ","translation":"我叫劳拉"}],[{"start":588.47,"end":593.54,"text":"And I'm working in Frankfurt, so I bring my daughter every day ","translation":"我在法兰克福工作，所以每天都会送女儿"},{"start":593.54,"end":594.72,"text":"here to school. ","translation":"来这里上学"}],[{"start":594.72,"end":597.86,"text":"And then I have to take the train ","translation":"然后我还得坐火车"},{"start":597.86,"end":601.615,"text":"and go all the way to Frankfurt to my job. ","translation":"一路赶到法兰克福去上班"}],[{"start":604.76,"end":608.87,"text":"It's not easy when I'm coming back and I have to pick her up. ","translation":"下班后接她回来并不容易"}],[{"start":608.87,"end":611.07,"text":"Every day, actually, the trains are delayed. ","translation":"实际上，每天火车都会晚点"}],[{"start":611.07,"end":615.39,"text":"And I always need a back-up plan, ","translation":"我总得有个备选方案"},{"start":615.39,"end":617.58,"text":"so in case I don't make it. ","translation":"以防万一没成功"}],[{"start":617.58,"end":622.67,"text":"I have to call people and say, please, can you pick her up? ","translation":"我得打电话给别人说，请帮我接她好吗"}],[{"start":622.67,"end":628.256,"text":"When I make it on time, I won the lotto. ","translation":"如果我能准时到，那就像中了彩票一样"}],[{"start":628.256,"end":631.16,"text":"We start making fun about it. ","translation":"我们开始开玩笑说这件事"}],[{"start":631.16,"end":634.58,"text":"When you talk about somebody that is not on time ","translation":"当你说某人总是不准时"},{"start":634.58,"end":639.695,"text":"or is always late, you say it's like the German train. ","translation":"或者经常迟到时，你会说他像德国火车一样"}],[{"start":639.695,"end":642.31,"text":"We do feel what Laura is going through. ","translation":"我们能理解劳拉正在经历的困境"}],[{"start":642.31,"end":646.64,"text":"This is something we are facing for the last years. ","translation":"这是我们近年来一直面临的问题"}],[{"start":646.64,"end":650.06,"text":"It's not only that our infrastructure is too old, ","translation":"我们的问题不仅在于基础设施老化"},{"start":650.06,"end":652.505,"text":"but also too congested. ","translation":"还在于过于拥堵"}],[{"start":652.505,"end":656.47,"text":"Sometimes the trains just stop, so it can ","translation":"有时候火车就停在那里"},{"start":656.47,"end":659.06,"text":"be 20 minutes or 30 minutes. ","translation":"可能要等二三十分钟"}],[{"start":659.06,"end":660.166,"text":"It's frustrating. ","translation":"这令人沮丧"}],[{"start":667.495,"end":669.88,"text":"So the good news for Laura is that we ","translation":"对劳拉来说，好消息是我们"},{"start":669.88,"end":671.86,"text":"have been able to stop the ageing ","translation":"已经成功遏制了"},{"start":671.86,"end":673.78,"text":"process of our infrastructure that ","translation":"基础设施的老化，这"},{"start":673.78,"end":677.08,"text":"caused so much problems with the delay, ","translation":"正是导致列车延误"},{"start":677.08,"end":679.93,"text":"with unpunctuality of our trains. ","translation":"和不准时的主要原因"}],[{"start":679.93,"end":686.89,"text":"We invested a record number of 19bn last year, in 2024, ","translation":"去年，也就是2024年，我们投入了创纪录的190亿欧元"},{"start":686.89,"end":690.26,"text":"into the renovation of our infrastructure. ","translation":"用于基础设施的改造"}],[{"start":690.26,"end":693.53,"text":"If we continue doing so, it will be better. ","translation":"如果我们继续这样做，情况会好转"}],[{"start":693.53,"end":695.95,"text":"It won't be better overnight, but it will be better ","translation":"事情不会一夜之间好转，但最终会变得更好"},{"start":695.95,"end":696.96,"text":"in a couple of years. ","translation":"只需要再等几年"}],[{"start":699.832,"end":705.52,"text":"So now, it's 2:35, and I have to leave work a little bit earlier, ","translation":"现在是2点35分，我得提前下班"},{"start":705.52,"end":709.23,"text":"because I just saw in the app that the train that I would like ","translation":"因为我刚在手机上看到"},{"start":709.23,"end":712.57,"text":"to take at 3:19, it's cancelled. ","translation":"原本打算坐的3点19分那班火车被取消了"}],[{"start":712.57,"end":716.82,"text":"I will be later than I should be at home ","translation":"我回家会比原计划晚一些"},{"start":716.82,"end":718.72,"text":"and pick up my daughter from school. ","translation":"去接女儿放学"}],[{"start":718.72,"end":722.152,"text":"It's every day the same thing. ","translation":"每天都是同样的情况"}],[{"start":722.152,"end":724.92,"text":"This lacking infrastructure goes against the German identity ","translation":"基础设施的不足违背了德国人一贯的民族特质"},{"start":724.92,"end":727.5,"text":"of efficiency, of punctuality. ","translation":"即以高效和准时著称"}],[{"start":727.5,"end":729.96,"text":"Look, if a train goes from Germany ","translation":"你看，如果一列火车从德国开往瑞士"},{"start":729.96,"end":732.82,"text":"to Switzerland, the Swiss train system, ","translation":"瑞士铁路系统通常会"},{"start":732.82,"end":734.88,"text":"they usually stop the German train at the border ","translation":"在边境拦下德国的火车"},{"start":734.88,"end":736.62,"text":"because the German train arrives late. ","translation":"因为德国的火车经常晚点"}],[{"start":736.62,"end":738.85,"text":"And they don't let the German trains in anymore, ","translation":"他们现在不让德国火车进来了"},{"start":738.85,"end":741.13,"text":"spoiling the Swiss punctuality. ","translation":"这让瑞士一向引以为傲的准时性也受到了影响"}],[{"start":741.13,"end":743.6,"text":"So this tells a lot about the problem. ","translation":"这充分说明了问题所在"}],[{"start":743.6,"end":746.94,"text":"We have one-third of trains that is delayed ","translation":"有三分之一的列车延误"},{"start":746.94,"end":748.78,"text":"in the long-distance network. ","translation":"在长途铁路网中"}],[{"start":748.78,"end":751.68,"text":"It means that still two-thirds are punctual, ","translation":"这说明还有三分之二的列车能准时到达"},{"start":751.68,"end":754.35,"text":"which is not that bad, but clearly not sufficient ","translation":"虽然不算太差，但显然还不够"},{"start":754.35,"end":756.705,"text":"and not what the public expects from the railways. ","translation":"也达不到公众对铁路的期望"}],[{"start":756.705,"end":759.35,"text":"Punctuality statistics are pretty bad ","translation":"准点率一直不佳"},{"start":759.35,"end":761.7,"text":"and have got worse in recent years. ","translation":"近年来情况还在恶化"}],[{"start":761.7,"end":763.94,"text":"That's despite the fact that only trains ","translation":"尽管只有那些"},{"start":763.94,"end":765.98,"text":"that run more than six minutes late ","translation":"晚点超过六分钟的列车"},{"start":765.98,"end":767.79,"text":"are actually counted as late. ","translation":"才会被统计为晚点"}],[{"start":767.79,"end":772.4,"text":"And all those many trains which get cancelled don't enter these ","translation":"而那些被取消的列车根本没有被统计在这些"},{"start":772.4,"end":773.7,"text":"numbers at all. ","translation":"数字里"}],[{"start":773.7,"end":776.31,"text":"There is a shortage of train drivers. ","translation":"缺列车司机"}],[{"start":776.31,"end":777.71,"text":"There is a shortage of people who ","translation":"还缺"},{"start":777.71,"end":779.55,"text":"are manning the signal boxes. ","translation":"负责信号箱的工作人员"}],[{"start":779.55,"end":781.37,"text":"There is a shortage of the people who have ","translation":"目前负责审批施工项目的人手"},{"start":781.37,"end":783.033,"text":"to approve construction works. ","translation":"严重不足"}],[{"start":783.033,"end":784.7,"text":"And right now, we have construction work ","translation":"目前，部分施工"},{"start":784.7,"end":785.69,"text":"that has completed. ","translation":"已经完成"}],[{"start":785.69,"end":790.07,"text":"And the railway lane cannot be reopened because those scarce ","translation":"铁路线路无法重新开放"},{"start":790.07,"end":791.28,"text":"people are not available. ","translation":"因为缺乏相关人员"}],[{"start":791.28,"end":794.1,"text":"And Deutsche Bahn forgot for years to train them. ","translation":"德国铁路公司多年来一直未对这些人员进行培训"}],[{"start":794.1,"end":796.25,"text":"And all these management failures ","translation":"所有这些管理上的失误"},{"start":796.25,"end":799.43,"text":"are now adding to the other problems ","translation":"如今正在加剧其他问题"},{"start":799.43,"end":802.01,"text":"that the infrastructure has. ","translation":"这些问题本就存在于基础设施中"}],[{"start":802.01,"end":804.65,"text":"The renovation of infrastructure in Germany ","translation":"德国的基础设施改造"},{"start":804.65,"end":806.22,"text":"is not going to happen overnight. ","translation":"不可能一夜之间完成"}],[{"start":806.22,"end":808.25,"text":"There are a lot of bureaucratic hurdles. ","translation":"存在大量官僚障碍"}],[{"start":808.25,"end":811.705,"text":"And there's also perhaps a question of capacity. ","translation":"可能还涉及能力问题"}],[{"start":811.705,"end":814.49,"text":"There are no, to my mind, financial or economic ","translation":"我认为，他们在财务或经济方面没有任何限制"},{"start":814.49,"end":816.03,"text":"constraints on what they can do. ","translation":"他们可以做任何事情，没有约束"}],[{"start":816.03,"end":817.9,"text":"But I'm sure there are constraints ","translation":"但我相信，他们确实有一些限制"},{"start":817.9,"end":820.82,"text":"on their actual ability to spend this well. ","translation":"在他们实际花钱时的限制"}],[{"start":820.82,"end":824.8,"text":"Germany actually couldn't do this investment programme ","translation":"德国其实现在无法启动这个投资计划"},{"start":824.8,"end":828.19,"text":"tomorrow because these industries have been so shrunken ","translation":"因为这些行业已经萎缩"},{"start":828.19,"end":829.425,"text":"for so long. ","translation":"太久了"}],[{"start":829.425,"end":830.69,"text":"Money is not everything. ","translation":"资金并非万能"}],[{"start":830.69,"end":834.95,"text":"So there are loads of problems, including labour shortage, ","translation":"因此，存在许多问题，包括劳动力短缺"},{"start":834.95,"end":837.49,"text":"that not that many construction companies that could be ","translation":"可调动的建筑公司"},{"start":837.49,"end":838.9,"text":"mobilised. ","translation":"也并不多"}],[{"start":838.9,"end":840.465,"text":"And so prices could go up. ","translation":"因此，物价可能会上涨"}],[{"start":846.22,"end":849.59,"text":"Schools - very basic infrastructure, very needed, ","translation":"学校作为最基本、最重要的基础设施，非常需要"},{"start":849.59,"end":850.666,"text":"are crumbling. ","translation":"如今却在逐渐衰败"}],[{"start":876.64,"end":878.64,"text":"They've had to put up support pillars to hold up ","translation":"他们不得不加装支柱来支撑"},{"start":878.64,"end":880.27,"text":"the structure of this building. ","translation":"这栋楼的结构"}],[{"start":880.27,"end":882.46,"text":"It was deemed unsafe for the kids to learn here. ","translation":"这里被认为对孩子们来说不安全，无法继续学习"}],[{"start":882.46,"end":884.7,"text":"Nothing was done until it got so dramatic ","translation":"一直没有人采取措施，直到情况变得非常严重"},{"start":884.7,"end":888.1,"text":"that bits and pieces from the roof started falling down. ","translation":"屋顶的碎片开始掉落"}],[{"start":888.1,"end":890.4,"text":"Just in Frankfurt, the situation is ","translation":"仅在法兰克福"},{"start":890.4,"end":893.01,"text":"there are about 60 schools that are falling apart ","translation":"大约有60所学校破旧不堪"},{"start":893.01,"end":894.25,"text":"and really need work. ","translation":"亟需修缮"}],[{"start":894.25,"end":896.16,"text":"And then the situation here obviously goes ","translation":"而这种情况显然也蔓延到了这里"},{"start":896.16,"end":897.305,"text":"into the rest of Germany. ","translation":"并扩展到了德国其他地区"}],[{"start":951.192,"end":953.4,"text":"Germany is a very decentralised country. ","translation":"德国是一个高度分权的国家"}],[{"start":953.4,"end":957.02,"text":"The problem then is if the federal level cannot give ","translation":"问题在于，如果联邦政府不能直接"},{"start":957.02,"end":960.63,"text":"directly the money to the local municipalities, ","translation":"把资金拨给地方政府"},{"start":960.63,"end":963.59,"text":"it always has to go via the states. ","translation":"钱就必须通过各州中转"}],[{"start":963.59,"end":966.92,"text":"And the states are sticky, so not all the money ","translation":"各州在资金分配上往往会截留"},{"start":966.92,"end":969.47,"text":"that you give to them necessarily ends up ","translation":"所以并不是所有拨给他们的钱"},{"start":969.47,"end":971.846,"text":"in the local municipalities. ","translation":"最终都能流向地方政府"}],[{"start":1031.377,"end":1033.349,"text":"The German Ministry of Finance is ","translation":"德国财政部将"},{"start":1033.349,"end":1037.46,"text":"going to look at how other ministries are going ","translation":"审查其他部门如何筹集"},{"start":1037.46,"end":1040.97,"text":"to fund and use this money, and will make sure ","translation":"和使用这笔资金，并确保"},{"start":1040.97,"end":1043.2,"text":"that it's not used for consumptive purposes. ","translation":"不会将其用于消费性用途"}],[{"start":1043.2,"end":1046.47,"text":"We'll make sure that it goes along with structural reforms. ","translation":"我们将确保这些措施与结构性改革相协调"}],[{"start":1046.47,"end":1049.64,"text":"Likewise, for the money that goes to the municipalities ","translation":"同样，拨给市政当局的资金"},{"start":1049.64,"end":1051.96,"text":"and to the Bundesländer, the regions, ","translation":"以及各联邦州、地区的资金"},{"start":1051.96,"end":1053.77,"text":"they come with conditionality attached. ","translation":"也都是有附加条件的"}],[{"start":1099.98,"end":1102.95,"text":"A lot of the roads and bridges were built ","translation":"许多道路和桥梁修建于上世纪六七十年代"},{"start":1102.95,"end":1106.38,"text":"in the '60s and '70s and now showing cracks, ","translation":"如今已经出现裂缝"},{"start":1106.38,"end":1108.55,"text":"and they're becoming very old. ","translation":"变得越来越老旧"}],[{"start":1108.55,"end":1111.46,"text":"One example is this bridge near Dresden. ","translation":"以德累斯顿附近这座桥梁为例"}],[{"start":1111.46,"end":1113.56,"text":"The bridge literally collapsed. ","translation":"这座桥实际上坍塌了"}],[{"start":1113.56,"end":1115.12,"text":"It's still not renovated. ","translation":"至今仍未修复"}],[{"start":1115.12,"end":1117.09,"text":"It collapsed in 2024. ","translation":"它于2024年坍塌"}],[{"start":1117.09,"end":1119.59,"text":"It was a very big shock to the system. ","translation":"这对整个系统造成了巨大冲击"}],[{"start":1119.59,"end":1122.23,"text":"It's also quite humiliating. ","translation":"这也相当令人尴尬"}],[{"start":1122.23,"end":1124.71,"text":"The perception of Germany outside Germany ","translation":"在国外，人们普遍认为德国"},{"start":1124.71,"end":1127.603,"text":"is that it's this great engineering country. ","translation":"是一个工程技术非常强大的国家"}],[{"start":1173.63,"end":1176.75,"text":"The problem with Germany is that it's an ageing population, ","translation":"德国面临的问题是人口老龄化"},{"start":1176.75,"end":1179.77,"text":"and they have increasing social costs. ","translation":"社会支出也在不断增加"}],[{"start":1179.77,"end":1182.42,"text":"There are other areas of the economy where we would just have ","translation":"经济中还有很多领域"},{"start":1182.42,"end":1185.81,"text":"a lot of potential for growth, like integrating more women ","translation":"蕴藏着巨大的增长潜力，比如让更多女性参与到劳动力市场"},{"start":1185.81,"end":1188.16,"text":"into the labour force, enabling them to work more. ","translation":"支持她们更好地就业"}],[{"start":1188.16,"end":1190.337,"text":"Secondly, migration - we mainly talk about it ","translation":"其次是移民问题——我们现在大多"},{"start":1190.337,"end":1191.67,"text":"in negative terms at the moment. ","translation":"是从负面角度来讨论它"}],[{"start":1191.67,"end":1194.81,"text":"But actually, it's hugely helpful for an ageing population ","translation":"但实际上，这对老龄化社会非常有帮助"},{"start":1194.81,"end":1197.04,"text":"because you get more younger people in the workforce. ","translation":"因为可以让更多年轻人加入劳动力队伍"}],[{"start":1197.04,"end":1201.843,"text":"And we haven't really managed to capitalise on these two factors ","translation":"而我们还没有像其他国家那样充分发挥这两个因素的作用"},{"start":1201.843,"end":1203.135,"text":"like some other countries have. ","translation":"像其他国家那样"}],[{"start":1225.347,"end":1228.92,"text":"Germany has high labour costs, and it will always have them, ","translation":"德国的劳动力成本很高，这种情况无论多高效都会一直存在"},{"start":1228.92,"end":1232.24,"text":"even if it's efficient, because the standard of social security ","translation":"因为我们国家的社会保障水平"},{"start":1232.24,"end":1234.56,"text":"that we have in this country is high. ","translation":"很高"}],[{"start":1234.56,"end":1237.82,"text":"We have an old population that costs a lot of money. ","translation":"我们有一个老龄化人口，这需要大量资金"}],[{"start":1237.82,"end":1239.99,"text":"So you really need people to be productive. ","translation":"因此，我们真的需要人们提高生产力"}],[{"start":1239.99,"end":1241.76,"text":"And how do you get them to be productive? ","translation":"那么，如何让他们提高生产力呢"}],[{"start":1241.76,"end":1243.56,"text":"By having a good education. ","translation":"通过提供良好的教育"}],[{"start":1243.56,"end":1246.53,"text":"With migration, it can really boost the labour force. ","translation":"通过移民，可以真正提升劳动力"}],[{"start":1246.53,"end":1248.35,"text":"And if you don't teach people German ","translation":"如果不教人们德语"},{"start":1248.35,"end":1251.48,"text":"and you don't give them the necessary qualifications, ","translation":"也不给他们必要的资格"},{"start":1251.48,"end":1253.49,"text":"they will all end up in the benefit system. ","translation":"他们最终都会依赖福利系统"}],[{"start":1253.49,"end":1255.375,"text":"And I think that's really the big risk. ","translation":"我认为这才是真正的风险"}],[{"start":1255.375,"end":1258.83,"text":"There must be a risk that inflation will pick up. ","translation":"通胀可能加剧的风险确实存在"}],[{"start":1258.83,"end":1261.58,"text":"Germans really, really, really don't like inflation. ","translation":"德国人真的、真的、真的不喜欢通胀"}],[{"start":1261.58,"end":1264.36,"text":"I suspect there will be some political problems associated ","translation":"我觉得这可能会带来一些政治上的"},{"start":1264.36,"end":1264.86,"text":"with this. ","translation":"问题"}],[{"start":1264.86,"end":1265.875,"text":"It's not a free lunch. ","translation":"这并非免费午餐"}],[{"start":1269.5,"end":1273.59,"text":"If the money is not spent wisely, Alternative for Germany, ","translation":"如果资金没有被合理利用"},{"start":1273.59,"end":1276.19,"text":"the far-right party, which is currently ","translation":"德国的极右翼政党德国选择党"},{"start":1276.19,"end":1278.75,"text":"the second-largest force in parliament, ","translation":"目前是议会中的第二大势力"},{"start":1278.75,"end":1280.05,"text":"will benefit from it. ","translation":"将会因此受益"}],[{"start":1280.05,"end":1284.8,"text":"There's a risk of a narrative emerging, fueled by the AfD, ","translation":"有一种风险是，AfD可能煽动舆论"},{"start":1284.8,"end":1290.07,"text":"that this is 500bn euros waste if the German government cannot ","translation":"认为如果德国政府无法证明"},{"start":1290.07,"end":1293.61,"text":"show that over the years, the money is actually improving ","translation":"这些年投入的资金确实改善了基础设施"},{"start":1293.61,"end":1296.35,"text":"infrastructure and increasing public investment. ","translation":"并增加了公共投资，这5000亿欧元就是浪费"}],[{"start":1296.35,"end":1299.28,"text":"So that's why it is so important that the money is spent only ","translation":"所以资金只能用于投资"},{"start":1299.28,"end":1300.725,"text":"for investment purposes. ","translation":"这一点非常重要"}],[{"start":1300.725,"end":1302.49,"text":"If you're paying taxes, and you still ","translation":"如果你在缴税"},{"start":1302.49,"end":1304.23,"text":"don't have a train that runs, and if you ","translation":"这个国家的火车都跑不起来"},{"start":1304.23,"end":1307.48,"text":"see that the school of your daughter is trash, ","translation":"女儿的学校也一团糟"},{"start":1307.48,"end":1311.05,"text":"you will no longer really believe in that state. ","translation":"你就不会再真正信任这个国家了"}],[{"start":1311.05,"end":1314.38,"text":"And often state and democracy is equaled. ","translation":"而国家与民主往往被等同视之"}],[{"start":1314.38,"end":1317.79,"text":"So that investment in our public goods and our infrastructure ","translation":"因此，投资于公共事业和基础设施"},{"start":1317.79,"end":1319.865,"text":"is an investment in democracy. ","translation":"就是在投资我们的民主"}],[{"start":1319.865,"end":1322.41,"text":"The really big danger now is people ","translation":"现在最大的隐患是，人们"},{"start":1322.41,"end":1324.99,"text":"see a lot of money being spent on the military ","translation":"看到大量资金被投入到军事"},{"start":1324.99,"end":1327.31,"text":"and on support for Ukraine. ","translation":"和对乌克兰的援助上"}],[{"start":1327.31,"end":1330.12,"text":"And the two, in a way, go a little bit together. ","translation":"这两者在某种程度上是相辅相成的"}],[{"start":1330.12,"end":1332.7,"text":"And at the same time that they don't see the spending ","translation":"与此同时，他们也没看到有任何投入"},{"start":1332.7,"end":1335.552,"text":"at the local level in their schools, in their communities, ","translation":"在本地学校、社区"},{"start":1335.552,"end":1337.26,"text":"and all the things that make life easier. ","translation":"以及各种便利生活的方面"}],[{"start":1337.26,"end":1339.62,"text":"And that makes people really, really angry. ","translation":"这让人们非常、非常愤怒"}],[{"start":1339.62,"end":1342.67,"text":"If people do feel the difference and do ","translation":"如果人们真的感受到变化"},{"start":1342.67,"end":1346.12,"text":"have trains that run again, schools that look nice, ","translation":"看到火车重新开动、学校焕然一新"},{"start":1346.12,"end":1350.56,"text":"they might again then really believe in democracy, ","translation":"也许他们会重新相信民主"},{"start":1350.56,"end":1354.53,"text":"and in turn lower the votes for AfD. ","translation":"从而减少对德国选择党的支持"}],[{"start":1359.32,"end":1363.28,"text":"Austerity was the truth, the belief, ","translation":"紧缩政策是真理，这种信念"},{"start":1363.28,"end":1367.21,"text":"for many years of the conservative and neoliberal ","translation":"多年来一直被保守派和新自由主义"},{"start":1367.21,"end":1369.53,"text":"politicians that were governing this country. ","translation":"执政的政客所坚信"}],[{"start":1369.53,"end":1371.24,"text":"And yes, I've been ashamed of that. ","translation":"是的，我为此感到羞耻"}],[{"start":1371.24,"end":1372.26,"text":"It's not just shame. ","translation":"这不仅仅是羞耻"}],[{"start":1372.26,"end":1373.57,"text":"It's just it's annoying. ","translation":"这只是令人恼火"}],[{"start":1373.57,"end":1375.78,"text":"And you want to have a country that works. ","translation":"你希望有一个运转良好的国家"}],[{"start":1375.78,"end":1378.73,"text":"New 500bn euros are supposed to give Germany back what ","translation":"新增的5000亿欧元旨在让德国恢复本应有的形象"},{"start":1378.73,"end":1381.82,"text":"it's supposed to be, a punctual and efficient government ","translation":"——一个准时高效的政府"},{"start":1381.82,"end":1382.76,"text":"and state. ","translation":"和国家"}],[{"start":1382.76,"end":1385.9,"text":"It will, however, take a lot of time until these 500bn euros are ","translation":"不过，这5000亿欧元要真正花出去"},{"start":1385.9,"end":1387.06,"text":"going to be spent. ","translation":"还需要很长时间"}],[{"start":1387.06,"end":1390.59,"text":"It's a gamble in the sense that it might not work. ","translation":"这是一种赌博，因为它可能不会成功"}],[{"start":1390.59,"end":1392.44,"text":"But then life is a gamble. ","translation":"但生活本身就是一场赌博"}],[{"start":1392.44,"end":1395.18,"text":"Germany remains a big, rich country. ","translation":"德国仍然是一个大国，一个富裕的国家"}],[{"start":1395.18,"end":1397.85,"text":"They've made some fairly big mistakes. ","translation":"他们犯了一些相当大的错误"}],[{"start":1397.85,"end":1401.23,"text":"Their fiscal policy has been far too tight for a very long time. ","translation":"他们的财政政策长期以来一直过于紧缩"}],[{"start":1401.23,"end":1404.14,"text":"They have been too dependent on foreign demand. ","translation":"他们过于依赖外部需求"}],[{"start":1404.14,"end":1407.76,"text":"China is now overwhelmingly the biggest manufacturing country ","translation":"中国如今已经成为全球最大的制造业国家"},{"start":1407.76,"end":1411.78,"text":"in the world, a gigantic exporter, a direct threat ","translation":"也是出口大国，毫无疑问"},{"start":1411.78,"end":1414.12,"text":"to Germany, of course it is. ","translation":"对德国构成了直接威胁"}],[{"start":1414.12,"end":1417.76,"text":"If this gamble wouldn't take place, ","translation":"如果不进行这场赌博"},{"start":1417.76,"end":1420.73,"text":"then the prospect would be really bleak. ","translation":"前景就会非常暗淡"}],[{"start":1420.73,"end":1424.68,"text":"It will surely improve prospects for GDP growth ","translation":"这无疑会提升国内生产总值的增长前景"},{"start":1424.68,"end":1427.82,"text":"and for the wider economy. ","translation":"并促进整体经济的发展"}],[{"start":1427.82,"end":1431.245,"text":"There is an opportunity for Germany to take a lead in Europe ","translation":"德国有机会在欧洲发挥带头作用"},{"start":1431.245,"end":1432.87,"text":"and going into this investment spending ","translation":"通过加大投资"},{"start":1432.87,"end":1435.45,"text":"to revive the European economy, which ","translation":"带动欧洲经济复苏，而"},{"start":1435.45,"end":1436.75,"text":"largely depends on Germany. ","translation":"欧洲经济很大程度上依赖德国"}],[{"start":1436.75,"end":1437.925,"text":"But it needs a bit more. ","translation":"但还需要更多努力"}],[{"start":1437.925,"end":1440.05,"text":"I think you need more than infrastructure spending. ","translation":"我认为仅靠基础设施支出是不够的"}],[{"start":1440.05,"end":1442.23,"text":"It's not just infrastructure that has really ","translation":"受紧缩政策影响的不只是基础设施"},{"start":1442.23,"end":1443.68,"text":"suffered from austerity. ","translation":"而已"}],[{"start":1443.68,"end":1445.39,"text":"It's also public services. ","translation":"公共服务也同样如此"}],[{"start":1445.39,"end":1447.43,"text":"I'm talking about education, childcare, ","translation":"我说的是教育、托育这些"},{"start":1447.43,"end":1451.302,"text":"all these things that are really needed to properly boost ","translation":"真正需要投入的领域，只有这样才能有效促进"},{"start":1451.302,"end":1452.51,"text":"the labour market and growth. ","translation":"劳动力市场和经济增长"}],[{"start":1456.897,"end":1461.87,"text":"Making Europe strong is the vital national priority ","translation":"让欧洲变得强大是"},{"start":1461.87,"end":1462.66,"text":"of Germany. ","translation":"德国最重要的国家优先任务"}],[{"start":1462.66,"end":1466.7,"text":"Making Germany's economy strong in the way that they are now ","translation":"按照他们现在的设想让德国经济强大"},{"start":1466.7,"end":1470.24,"text":"imagining, making Germany's defence strong in the way that ","translation":"按照他们现在的规划让德国国防强大"},{"start":1470.24,"end":1473.49,"text":"they are now planning is a necessary condition, ","translation":"这不仅是德国复兴的"},{"start":1473.49,"end":1476.04,"text":"not just for the revitalisation of Germany, ","translation":"必要条件"},{"start":1476.04,"end":1478.62,"text":"but for the revitalisation of Europe. ","translation":"也是欧洲复兴的必要条件"}],[{"start":1478.62,"end":1481.65,"text":"Not doing this would be a catastrophe. ","translation":"不这样做将是一场灾难"}],[{"start":1481.65,"end":1483.864,"text":"I believe that the Germans are serious enough ","translation":"我相信德国人一向认真"},{"start":1483.864,"end":1485.6970000000001,"text":"and competent enough - they always have been ","translation":"而且有能力，他们一直如此"},{"start":1485.6970000000001,"end":1489.28,"text":"- to get this to work because they have to. ","translation":"他们一定能把这件事做好，因为他们别无选择"}],[{"start":1489.28,"end":1491.25,"text":"The backdrop is so challenging... ","translation":"背景如此严峻…… "}],[{"start":1491.25,"end":1493.125,"text":"And in a little while I'll be signing four... ","translation":"过一会儿我将签署四项…… "}],[{"start":1493.125,"end":1497.27,"text":"...an adversarial US president, increasing geopolitical ","translation":"...美国总统采取对抗态度，地缘政治局势"},{"start":1497.27,"end":1498.18,"text":"tensions. ","translation":"日益紧张"}],[{"start":1498.18,"end":1500.75,"text":"Merz doesn't have a choice. ","translation":"默茨别无选择"}],[{"start":1500.75,"end":1503.11,"text":"He has to succeed. ","translation":"他必须成功"}]],"dict":"{\"Making Germany's\":[\"塑造德国的\",\"制作德国\"],\"Making\":[\"塑造\",\"制作\"],\"Germany's\":[\"德国的\"],\"Friedrich Merz\":[\"弗里德里希•梅尔茨\",\"弗里德里希•梅尔斯(Friedrich Merz)\"],\"Merz\":[\"梅尔茨\",\"梅尔斯\",\"梅尔斯(Friedrich Merz)\"],\"Austerity\":[\"紧缩政策\",\"紧缩\"],\"Frankfurt\":[\"法兰克福\"],\"Ukraine\":[\"乌克兰\"],\"They're\":[\"他们\"],\"There's\":[\"有\"],\"They've\":[\"他们已经\",\"他们有\"],\"Germans\":[\"德国人\"],\"Russia\":[\"俄罗斯\"],\"We're\":[\"我们\",\"是\"],\"Laura\":[\"劳拉\"],\"Swiss\":[\"瑞士\"],\"It's\":[\"它是\"],\"Nato\":[\"北约\"],\"GDP\":[\"国内生产总值\",\"GDP\"],\"I'm\":[\"我是\"],\"AfD\":[\"德国选择党\",\"AFD\"]}"}